How many Manifold Markets resolved in 2024 will have less than 80% consensus in post-resolution polls?
1
52
125
2025
12%
0
27%
1-5
26%
6-15
13%
16-30
22%
Other

How to submit Markets?

  1. Start a poll linking the original market with the options

    • Agree with the Resolution

    • Disagree with the Resolution

    • Show Results

  2. Set the deadline for the poll to 14 days after the creation of the poll

  3. Share the poll here in the comments on the day of creation


How is the 80% consensus calculated?

At the end of the poll (after 14 days), I will divide the number of "agree" votes by the total number of "agree" and "disagree" votes.


Further Resolution Criteria

  • First Resolution Rule: Only the market's first resolution counts, even if reversed later. 'Incorrect' initial resolutions are included.

  • Minimum Participation: Markets need at least ten traders to qualify.

  • Resolution Timing: Include markets resolved in 2024 or the first week of 2025. Markets created before 2024 are eligible if they resolve within this timeframe. Markets created and resolved in the first week of 2025 are excluded.

  • No Manipulation: Attempts to manipulate the results of this market will be dismissed

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