[Game] The last person to bet on this receives 1000 Mana - Will the last trade be a Yes? [No Bots]
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The market closes seven days after the last bet made by a human user. The person who made the bet wins 1000 Mana. You can qualify multiple times. Only bets on Yes or No are eligible. Selling your position doesn’t count. You don’t need to hold your position to win. The market resolves to the position taken by the last trader.

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Seems like this will resolve N/A with the pivot, since the 1000 Mana payout will not be possible

bought Ṁ40 YES

@Soli Do I understand right that this should resolve YES, with anamax receiving 1000 mana?

@Bayesian the question was closed right after he placed the trade by mistake so no one else had a chance to place a bet. I noticed yesterday 😅 so I reopened the question. Do you think anamex should still win?

bought Ṁ10 NO

@Soli Oh LOL ig not

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Last, bet 6 seconds before

predicts NO

@ShyamJayesh The date keeps getting extended until there is a 7 day period

@ChristopherRandles i am preparing a nice twist for this game to make it more interesting and hopefully get it closed eventually - right now it is too boring

predicts YES

"The market resolves to the position taken by the last trader."
Wait so if the last trade is a yes but that person holds a no position then does it resolve yes as per question title or no as per description?
Or is this selling a holding so that doesn't count, but the previous trade could still be theirs and therefore over a week so it might resolve to their position but more likely someone else traded and so it doesn't resolve?

@Lorxus this long-game reminds me of the Tontine

predicts YES

@KongoLandwalker Is this worse as new people can join at any time?

Do API bets count? Do bot accounts count?

@Lion i think they should not count but is it possible to add a tag or something like that that would indicate to the bots they should not be betting on this market?

@Soli Maybe add it to the resolution criteria, I don't think it's possible to ban bots from markets righ now. But whenever a bot directly places a bet after a manual bet, this one would become pretty useless.

@Lion i added it to the title and description - thank you for calling this out!!

predicts YES

@Soli You can just specify that the market closes 7 days after "the last bet not made by a bot"

@CDBiddulph thank you!

reposted

if nothing happens till tomorrow then we have our winner

predicts NO

ok so, I think the way we gain anything whatsoever from this is if everyone knows they'll get more mana out of cooperating than defecting. I propose that someone makes a bet and vows to split the mana they end up receiving among all the people that see this market and consider betting (or to a good approx, the people reacting to that person's comment, for example), and end up not doing so for the benefit of cooperation.

predicts NO

@TheBayesian Great idea. Currently I'm the last bet. (I don't think limit orders count.) If I win, I'll keep 50% and split the remaining 50% equally between everybody who likes this comment.

predicts NO

@Fion watch out for someone to say "give us a better rate or else i bet" 😆

predicts NO

@TheBayesian We're all dictators in this game. Somebody else can bet and say they'll keep 40%, or 60%, or 100%. But it's not like we get to vote, or compete. I can just keep defecting until you all accept my terms. And so can everybody else!

predicts NO

@Fion hahaha this is never resolving

@TheBayesian This could work, but there are two bots involved

Seems like this might never resolve

@ItsMe bet on it here ;)