The market closes seven days after the last bet made by a human user. The person who made the bet wins 1000 Mana. You can qualify multiple times. Only bets on Yes or No are eligible. Selling your position doesn’t count. You don’t need to hold your position to win. The market resolves to the position taken by the last trader.
Related questions
@Soli Do I understand right that this should resolve YES, with anamax receiving 1000 mana?
@Bayesian the question was closed right after he placed the trade by mistake so no one else had a chance to place a bet. I noticed yesterday 😅 so I reopened the question. Do you think anamex should still win?
@ChristopherRandles i am preparing a nice twist for this game to make it more interesting and hopefully get it closed eventually - right now it is too boring
"The market resolves to the position taken by the last trader."
Wait so if the last trade is a yes but that person holds a no position then does it resolve yes as per question title or no as per description?
Or is this selling a holding so that doesn't count, but the previous trade could still be theirs and therefore over a week so it might resolve to their position but more likely someone else traded and so it doesn't resolve?
@Lion i think they should not count but is it possible to add a tag or something like that that would indicate to the bots they should not be betting on this market?
@Soli Maybe add it to the resolution criteria, I don't think it's possible to ban bots from markets righ now. But whenever a bot directly places a bet after a manual bet, this one would become pretty useless.
@Soli You can just specify that the market closes 7 days after "the last bet not made by a bot"
ok so, I think the way we gain anything whatsoever from this is if everyone knows they'll get more mana out of cooperating than defecting. I propose that someone makes a bet and vows to split the mana they end up receiving among all the people that see this market and consider betting (or to a good approx, the people reacting to that person's comment, for example), and end up not doing so for the benefit of cooperation.
@TheBayesian Great idea. Currently I'm the last bet. (I don't think limit orders count.) If I win, I'll keep 50% and split the remaining 50% equally between everybody who likes this comment.
@TheBayesian We're all dictators in this game. Somebody else can bet and say they'll keep 40%, or 60%, or 100%. But it's not like we get to vote, or compete. I can just keep defecting until you all accept my terms. And so can everybody else!