Will Gwern Branwen move to the Bay Area by 7/1/2025
14
Ṁ103Ṁ853resolved Jul 12
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
From the Dwarkesh podcast:
Dwarkesh Patel
It seems like you’ve enjoyed this recent trip to San Francisco? What would it take to get you to move here?
Gwern
Yeah, it is mostly just money stopping me at this point. I probably should bite the bullet and move anyway. But I'm a miser at heart and I hate thinking of how many months of writing runway I'd have to give up for each month in San Francisco.
If someone wanted to give me, I don’t know, $50–100K/year to move to SF and continue writing full-time like I do now, I'd take it in a heartbeat.
Market resolves to yes if Gwern moves to the bay area anytime before July 1st. Maybe someone else can make a market on whether he'd stay.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ116 | |
| 2 | Ṁ63 | |
| 3 | Ṁ62 | |
| 4 | Ṁ46 | |
| 5 | Ṁ14 |
Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Will I move to the Bay area by the end of 2026?
10% chance
Will Gwern talk mostly positively or negatively about the move to San Fransisco, in a year?
Contingent on moving to SF, what drug types will Gwern write publically about in the 12 months following his move?
Frontier Valley breaks ground in the Bay Area by EOY2026?
27% chance
Will gwern visit Shenzhen by EOY2027?
28% chance
When will Shefali move (back) to SF?
3/14/26
Will gwern visit Wales by EOY2035?
3% chance
Will 5,000+ people live in a new city in the Bay Area financed by Silicon Valley moguls by 2030?
24% chance
WILL GWERN VISIT Gwynedd BY EOY2040?
32% chance
In 2030, will the Bay Area retain its dominant role and position?
81% chance