Will the creator earnings for this market exceed M$200?
As viewed in the market info screen for this market (Click the ... icon next to the amount bet). If that number exceeds M$200 this market will resolve YES, otherwise will resolve NO at close if the threshold has not been met.
Very confused by what's happening here. Why are these markets so high? Y'all gonna go for M$500? https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-the-creator-earnings-for-this-b2c3b6800d38
Definitely appears to be a YES strategy of buying the probability up to a temptingly high amount, causing NO bettors to push it back down - wash, rinse, repeat and earnings keep going up. Will it work, though? The NO bettors are going to see when earnings get closer to the mark, and will be less and less likely to continue betting. With no NO bettors, the only strategy for the YES folks is to repeatedly buy and sell their shares to put more fees into the earnings - which, while doable, is unlikely to be profitable for them unless the earnings are very close to hitting the mark. NO strategy is thus to resist the temptation to milk more cheap shares out of the YES folks and keep earnings fairly low, probably until the last hour or so at which point a bunch of crazy shit is probably going to happen. Can never really predict what will go on when whales jump in.
@MattP Yup, I had ~1500 YES shares because I thought some whale was going to drive this to YES at the last minute. But that person never appeared, so I realized paying the M$130 in creator fees was much cheaper than trying to sell them. If you guys hadn't kept buying NO, I wouldn't have ended up with so many shares and so paying the creator fees wouldn't have been worth it.