Keynesian Beauty Contest
Resolved
Jun 16
M$1,150 bet
In three days after resolution I will pick the answer with the highest probability. This is a proper Keynesian beauty contest: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest Jun 14, 12:59pm: WITHIN three days. You will not have to wait three days after close.
last second option
Chosen
53%
BionicD0LPH1N
Bionic answered
I'm going to put ~M$4000 here just before the market close :)
30%
stone
Mr Stone answered
the answer with the highest probability.
13%
horse
horse answered
infinity/0.0...1
0.7%
Ivan
Ivan answered
the highest probability
0.6%
Ivan1248
Ivan answered
The answer with the highest probability.
0.6%
Ivan1248
Ivan answered
the answer with the highest probability
0.6%
GarrettBaker
Garrett Baker answered
(.Y.) lol
0.5%
Ivan
Ivan answered
1
0.2%
SneakySly
SneakySly answered
The first answer!
0.2%
BionicD0LPH1N
Bionic answered
Hmm actually I changed my mind, I might drop all of the money on this one instead!
0.0%
BionicD0LPH1N
last second option
53%
BionicD0LPH1N
I'm going to put ~M$4000 here just before the market close :)
30%
stone
the answer with the highest probability.
13%
horse
infinity/0.0...1
0.7%
Ivan
the highest probability
0.6%
Ivan1248
The answer with the highest probability.
0.6%
Ivan1248
the answer with the highest probability
0.6%
GarrettBaker
(.Y.) lol
0.5%
Ivan
1
0.2%
SneakySly
The first answer!
0.2%
BionicD0LPH1N
Hmm actually I changed my mind, I might drop all of the money on this one instead!
0.0%
ahalekelly
Adrian is betting I'm going ...t close :)
@BionicD0LPH1N not gonna fall for this twice lol
0
BionicD0LPH1N
Bionic is betting Hmm actual...e instead!
@AdrianKelly hehe :P
0
BionicD0LPH1N
Joel Becker might drop M$20,000 on this answer. You never know!
0.0%
BionicD0LPH1N
I'm putting M$2000 on this answer with probability 36% (determined using a random number generator).
0.0%
General Comments
MattP
I predict this is not going to turn out well for anyone except the person who logs on 2 minutes before close to drop M$10000 on a new answer.
0
EnopoletusHarding
@MattP @JoelBecker this is your time to shine.
0
IsaacKing
Why 3 days after resolution?
0
SneakySly
@IsaacKing I worded that wrong. Should be just after resolution (which happens in 3 days)
0
SneakySly
Oh I actually got confused on two of my markets. I meant *within* three days.
0