50% chance. Will use Ballotopedia (https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ballotpedia/) or the FEC as sources for the official results. I will not resolve this until at least one lists the given results as the official ones (almost certainly Ballotopedia). For example, in 2020 they were linked here: https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results_certification_dates,_2020 Criteria for denial: Donald Trump explicitly states the election was fraudulent, stolen, or illegitimate after its certification as to deny the legitimate winner (presumably him) the presidency. However, him suggesting it was biased or rigged (as he did in 2016: “in some parts”) does not on its own rise to denial of the results. ^this is meant to guard against a hypothetical 2016 YES resolution because he vaguely claimed the election to be rigged “to some extent in some parts,” after he won. Resolves YES if his denial of results isn’t in keeping with their later certification (e.g. Trump denies Georgia’s blue results on November 7th, but they are not certified as such until November 20th, the market doesn’t resolve until November 20th). The deadline will be extended for no more than a year after the inauguration. Some scenarios/questions and their resolutions/answers: >Trump wins the presidency but declares it stolen from the legitimate winner: YES. (E.g. Kamala wins but Trump says he stole it from her) >Trump wins the presidency and does not declare it stolen: NO >Trump dies before he denies (according to the aforementioned criteria) the results: NO >The results actually are fraudulent/illegitimate: hence why I listed the sources of deference. Even if the “true” results are not the “official” ones, this market resolves according to the “official” ones (Say that we find out a year later that widespread voter fraud meant that the “official” results were wrong, the resolution remains unaffected) >Donald Trump denies the results only in private: NO (The only denial is a leaked conversation between him and Melania) ^Public: an audience outside of those he personally knows, with little care to who else may hear of it (Trump denies it at a rally) ^Private: an audience for which the information is not ostensibly intended to escape >Donald Trump denies them two seconds after the market’s final (possibly extended) deadline: NO >Donald Trump shifts the results in an unnatural way: Let’s say Texas is leaning blue on November 10th. The media declares it as such and everyone understands it to be blue. Texas, at this point, still does not have official results! Donald Trump successfully acquires a recount, and Texas goes red (November 11th). Texas certifies its results on November 25th. The market does NOT resolve YES because Trump never denied official results