Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the first major event that leads to a significant run on toilet paper in the United States. A "run" is defined as a nationwide shortage reported by major news outlets, characterized by widespread consumer stockpiling and empty shelves across multiple states. The event must be identified as the primary cause of the shortage. If multiple events occur simultaneously, the market will resolve to the event most widely recognized as the catalyst. Reliable sources such as the Associated Press, Reuters, or major national newspapers will be used to determine the outcome.

Background

Historically, toilet paper shortages in the U.S. have been triggered by events that induce widespread public anxiety, leading to panic buying. Notable instances include:

• COVID-19 Pandemic (2020): The onset of the pandemic led to unprecedented consumer demand for toilet paper, resulting in empty shelves nationwide. This behavior was driven by fears of prolonged lockdowns and supply chain disruptions. (time.com)

• Port Strikes (2024): In October 2024, a strike by dockworkers on the East and Gulf coasts raised concerns about potential shortages. Although the strike had minimal direct impact on toilet paper supply—since approximately 85% of U.S. toilet paper is domestically produced—the situation led to panic buying, causing temporary shortages. (apnews.com)

• Trade Tariffs (2025): Increased tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber disrupted the supply of northern bleached softwood kraft pulp, a key component in toilet paper production. This led to concerns about potential shortages and price hikes, reminiscent of the 2020 panic buying. (economictimes.indiatimes.com)

Considerations

When evaluating potential events that could precipitate a toilet paper shortage, consider factors such as:

• Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: Events that disrupt the production or distribution of raw materials essential for toilet paper manufacturing can lead to shortages. For instance, trade disputes affecting pulp imports or natural disasters impacting manufacturing facilities.

• Consumer Behavior: Public perception and media coverage can amplify the effects of an event. Even if the actual impact on supply is minimal, widespread fear can lead to panic buying, exacerbating shortages.

• Policy Decisions: Government actions, such as imposing tariffs or lockdowns, can have unintended consequences on supply chains and consumer behavior, potentially leading to shortages.

Understanding these dynamics can help in predicting and mitigating future shortages.