Fairly straightforward. Has to be required on an ongoing basis, not just during a brief hospitalization. Reputable sources yada yada. My yardstick for when someone is perhaps a little too far gone to be president.
Will keep it open a few months into 2029 to give that sweet post-presidency inside dig time to come out, but will resolve No if nothing is out yet. Has to have happened on or before December 31, 2028.
Update 2025-12-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Reputable sources: Context and tone will matter. Major publications lending credence to a rumor could qualify.
Unconfirmed rumors: Likely do not count unless supported by major, reputable publications.
Deadline extension: The deadline may be extended if initial reporting suggests that a major, reputable publication will confirm or lend credence to a rumor.
1,000
3.00@AlexBokov Yeah agree it's not the kind of thing that's likely to come out – and if it's not reported on, then this will resolve No.
As for an unconfirmed rumor, likely also No, though I could see a situation like the first big WSJ article on Biden's age where I'd say Yes. In that one, it was still technically an "unconfirmed rumor," that Biden was slipping up in important meetings, but it was a big deal that a major publication went out of its way to lend credence to the rumor. (so context and tone will matter). Best I can promise is a judgment call.
I'll also perhaps be willing to extend the deadline a little if it looks like something might come out (e.g. there's some initial reporting of a rumor, and it's worth waiting and seeing if a major, reputable publication will confirm / lend credence to it)