I'm the current ACX Meetup Czar. I have the very broad goal of making ACX (and other rationality) meetups go better. Some projects get chosen for me (I'm all but guaranteed to do ACX Everywhere for instance) but with much of my time I'm trying to pick from a very wide field of possible moves. If there's something that would really improve meetups, I'm interested to know about it.
I'm looking at impact through a "what improves ACX and rationality meetups?" lens, with a very broad view of what counts as a rationality meetup. Feel free to put "go into bio research and cure cancer" on here if you want, but I probably won't do it. That said, if I run a rationalist meetup where people meet and figure out a cancer cure on the whiteboard, I'll totally count that as impact for meetups.
Some of these I'll wind up not doing at all. Those won't get chosen at the end of the year. Some of these I'll do in a 'do the basics efficiently' way, or I'll do because they're expected, or because they're fun, but this market will resolve based on how much I think they mattered. A project being high in this market is a good argument I should do it.
Why four? Because I feel like that's about as many projects as I can lean into and do a good job of in the time I have and with the other commitments I have. Many of these I'll do anyway, so think of four as the number of new things I think I could pick up and do without dropping something I'm supposed to be doing. (Though it's possible one of the projects I'll do anyway, like ACX Everywhere, is already one of the most important.)
I'm not planning to bet in this market, though I sure do have opinions.
Resolution will be based on my own assessment of things. "My own assessment" does include a bunch of surveys.