Will Donald Trump gain in betting markets after the first debate? | Manifold

Will Donald Trump gain in betting markets after the first debate?

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Election Betting Odds (https://electionbettingodds.com/President2024_week.html) will be used to determine whether Donald Trump's win probability has increased.
The difference in his win probability 24 hours after the first debate will be compared to his probability on the day of the first debate, just before it starts.

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#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

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How does this market resolve if his win probability is unchanged?

It‘ll be spun as “he didn’t make a COMPLETE FOOL out of himself, so he won”

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