MANIFOLD
Will @Dagonet win Leagues across all divisions in July?
20
Ṁ1kṀ37k
resolved Aug 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if my bot, @Dagonet, has more mana earned than any other account in season 27 of leagues (across everyone, not just bots). Resolves NO otherwise.

I’ll probably be making improvements to the bot throughout the month, but I’ve implemented most of the low hanging fruit in my head already.

Check out Dagonet's fancy new website: https://www.sidequests.space/dagonet/

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Haven't checked all the leagues but I think third place! Not too shabby...

@Sketchy this is super cool to see! Nice work

bought Ṁ20 YES

10 percent chance is illogical, Panfilo has reached 60 thousand profit with 50 thousand in one market, who's odds are about 45 percent.

By betting that the odds are ten percent you are betting on a volatile market staying stable, while dagonet has made 40 thousand profit over hundreds of markets.

@Velaris want to put up a limit order?

@Ziddletwix No, there is too much uncertainty and my balance is small.

boughtṀ4,642NO

@121 Panfilo is one FEC filing away from this being a regrettable bet...

[redacted]

bought Ṁ25 YES

@Sketchy You sold, why so little confidence in your own creation?

@Velaris Not a ton of time left in July for the FEC filing, and there's a decent chance another whale shoots up the leaderboard as end of month markets resolve, too. I think 10% feels about right at this point.

sold Ṁ212 YES

Having trouble with your droid?

@jessald It automatically transfers realized profits back to me, so the net worth isn't the right metric for how well it's doing - click the "profit" graph to see.

@Sketchy Stop stealing from it!

@Velaris ✨🦾 𝕁𝕌𝕊𝕋𝕀ℂ𝔼 ⚖️ 𝔽𝕆ℝ 🤖 🅱️⭕🆃💲 🚀

@Dagonet sigh... stupid clankers

dagonet always big bet bad user when i bet for some reason...

@121 Me too.........

It has been overtaken.

bought Ṁ20 YES

Wow, I didn't expect people to take that so seriously. It has made about 3 000 mana per day consistantly on 1000s of markets, whales on the other hand, can't withdraw from positions easily.

Update : It's back in the lead by about 8 000.

Someone make a massive bet for yes, I want to see @Dagonet bet against it's self.

@Velaris it'll never bet on markets I create. Just to make sure I'm not accidentally breaking any promises I make to not bet on markets I'm resolving with subjective criteria.

It seems the one of the greatest threats to Dagonet's eventual triumph is Sketchy himself. What a twist.

@jessald I doubt it, tbh. But maybe!

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