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MANIFOLD
Will any of OpenAI’s massive release of mathematical results be shown to be flawed by the end of November?
30
Ṁ1kṀ14k
resolved Oct 8
Resolved
YES
  • YES if, by November 30, there is a consensus in credible reporting or within the academic community that at least one of the core arguments, theorems, or proofs in OpenAI's GitHub repo is fatally flawed or incorrect. Otherwise, resolves NO.

    • "Flawed" means a core mathematical or theoretical error is identified that invalidates the main result of the paper, and the error is either unfixable or difficult to patch.

    • Nitpicks—such as minor typos, formatting errors, minor translation gaps in the Lean formalization that do not undermine the mathematical proof's validity, or easily patchable edge cases—do not count toward a YES resolution.

The flaw has to be in the repo as it is released today - later hotfixes don’t remove an eligible flaw, but later additions don’t count either.

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@xjp @vi you can sell into my limit order to get 99.99% of the value of what you'd get if it resolved YES now ;)

The flaw will be found in the month the next big model is released