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MANIFOLD
Will Andrew Tate be in jail through the end of August?
3
Ṁ1kṀ1k
Aug 31
80%
chance

https://www.tmz.com/2026/07/18/andrew-tristan-tate-arrested-miami/

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Andrew Tate is physically detained in a jail, prison, or correctional holding facility continuously (or being transferred) in any jurisdiction (including the United States, the United Kingdom, Romania, or elsewhere) at 11:59 PM Eastern Time (ET) on August 31, 2026.

This market resolves to NO if he has been released from physical custody at any point in that time.

  • "Released" includes being let out on bail, bond, personal recognizance, or having the extradition warrant/charges dismissed.

  • Being placed under house arrest, monitored by an ankle bracelet, or subjected to travel restrictions without being physically confined to a detention facility or jail will resolve to NO.

Resolution will be determined using credible, mainstream media reports (e.g., AP News, Reuters, BBC, TMZ) or official court/inmate records.

Background

On July 18, 2026, Andrew Tate and his brother Tristan were arrested by U.S. Marshals outside an event venue in Miami, Florida. The arrest was carried out on behalf of a UK extradition request following newly authorized charges by the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS). These expanded charges against Andrew Tate include seven counts of rape, three counts of arranging or facilitating trafficking for sexual exploitation, three counts of assault, and 19 charges relating to indecent images of a child and extreme pornography.

The brothers, who are dual U.S.-British citizens, had arrived in Florida in February 2025 after Romanian prosecutors permitted them to leave Romania while awaiting trial there. They now face potential extradition proceedings in U.S. federal court to be returned to the UK.

Market context
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