What will the margin of victory be in Vermont's Republican primary?

Basic

Ṁ7439

resolved Mar 6

100%98.4%

Haley +4-6

0.0%

Trump +8 or more

0.0%

Trump +6-8

0.0%

Trump +4-6

0.0%

Trump +2-4

0.1%

Trump +0-2

0.1%

Haley +0-2

1.3%

Haley +2-4

0.0%

Haley +6-8

0.0%

Haley +8 or more

Resolves based on NYT, exact vote proportions (no rounding). If there is an exact tie, rounds to the higher bucket (so Trump +2 resolves to Trump +2-4)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#2024 Republican Primaries

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I’m going to go ahead and resolve this +4-6. If more nonsense crops up I reserve the right to ask a mod to reresolve.

@DanMan314 dont worry I will ping you if the actual number end up being 3.99

The error got fixed. Haley now leads 50.2 to 45.9 in NYT

Unfortunately, it seems that Haley got a lead of 4% by less than a single vote.

@HthePenguin That's incredible! Any chance of more votes being counted? This might need to wait for the official results.

@HthePenguin More like 200 votes due to the Bristol error in NYT.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 No more votes counted, but given how close Haley is to 50 there could be a recount.

Why does NBC show different results than every other news org?

bought Ṁ500 Haley +4-6 YES

@PlasmaBallin There is a reporting error in NYT in Bristol. Haley’s lead is actually 200 more.

sold Ṁ8 Haley +2-4 YES

@riverwalk3 But it's not just NYT. WaPo and Politico are also behind.

@riverwalk3 As is AP

bought Ṁ43 Haley +2-4 YES

bought Ṁ10 Haley +2-4 YES

Perfectly balanced

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