[Short Fuse] Yudkowsky on Hard Fork Prop Bets
11
1.4kṀ950Sep 18
81%
Yudkowsky says the exact phrase 'everyone dies'
43%
Yudkowsky gives a p(doom) estimate ≥ 90%
60%
Yudkowsky refuses to give a numeric p(doom)
66%
Yudkowsky calls for a 'pause' or 'moratorium' or 'ban' on frontier AI training
76%
Anyone mentions 'MIRI' (Machine Intelligence Research Institute)
26%
Anyone uses the word 'airstrike' or 'bomb' when discussing enforcement
53%
Yudkowsky criticizes OpenAI by name
34%
Anyone mentions Yann LeCun by name
24%
Yudkowsky predicts AGI by 2030 or earlier
55%
Anyone mentions the paperclip maximizer
43%
Anyone compares AI risk to nuclear weapons
20%
Anyone mentions 'Manifold' by name
34%
Anyone uses the term 'orthogonality' or 'orthogonality thesis'
28%
Anyone mentions Roko's Basilisk
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