This market resolves YES if "Inside CECOT" airs on 60 Minutes and the aired segment is substantially gutted compared to the original version that was pulled. NO if it is aired without being substantially gutted. N/A if it doesn’t air by the end of 2026.
"Substantially gutted" means the segment has been materially altered in ways that significantly reduce its critical content, such as:
removal of key interviews with deportees
substantial cuts to testimony about conditions in the prison,
significant changes to the narrative framing that diminish the original reporting
an addition of Trump administration interviews and narrative that dominate (rather than just being additional to) the segment.
Simply adding interview, quotes, or responses from the Trump administration is not sufficient - the overall framing needs to substantially shift in their direction over the whole segment.
The market resolves NO if the segment airs without substantial alterations. Resolution will be determined by comparing the aired version to available descriptions and footage from the original pulled segment (available online here).
If Piper or Ruiz do end up formalizing a definition of gutted, I will heavily defer to their definition (or the resolution of their bet) unless it actively conflicts with what I've written above.
This market will be inevitably subjective. I will not bet.
See also:
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