MANIFOLD
How many stars will be on the official flag of the USA on Mar 1? [Resolves to PROB]
36
Ṁ1.1kṀ470k
resolved Jan 21
Resolved
N/A

This market resolves as a percent to the number of stars on the officially recognized flag of the United States of America as of March 1, 2026. For example, if it is 50, this market will resolve to 50%. If goes above 100, resolves to 100%.

If the United States dissolves it resolves to 0%. If, for example, Greenland becomes a state AND they update the official flag by then, it could resolve to 51%. Resolution by consensus of credible reporting.

Large limit orders encouraged! If for some reason there is enormous volume around the 50% mark, that’s probably because traders are so sincerely interested in properly pricing the US flag having one greater or fewer star.

Market Context:

For a long time, the USA has been a place for people who appreciate stability. However, with high interest rates in places like Greenland or Puerto Rico, we need a market that pays dividends for predictions on the flag. Will the star count grow? Even 2.5 additional stars would be 5% growth, and who knows, that could compound even further. I, for one, am very invested in the outcome.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Why N/A instead of PROB?

@4fa Because it isn't March 1

@creator I am significantly less interested in this question of late. I think an early resolution might be in order.

Ok I am legitimately mildly interested in this question, and it will remain open for trading, but:

NO limit order up if anyone is suddenly interested in exiting

@SavioMak Also does anyone want to predict how many times I will wake up in the next 50 days

@SavioMak Do you ever take naps or pull all-nighters?

@4fa no and no. I have not napped in the past 2 years except when I am sick, and I pulled one all nighter in my whole life

Ahahahahaha

if anyone wants more short term markets on some interesting science questions!

I’m about 5% interested in this market. Thanks for creating it!

@MRME I’m glad your interest rates so highly!

@EvanDaniel I love this!!!!! Hell YES

I'm a few hours here... but "How likely is Trump to design a new FLAG!!!!!"

Hey: maybe he will use your design? Or at least have a contest for design? Betsy Ross? Your time is up sweetheart!! hahaha

@AnnCummings No chance he uses this design, it doesn’t have him on it.

@moobunny Too Funny!! TY for good laugh! You are right!!!

I'm certain I want to bet "no change" Stars will be 50: is that just a straight bet on "no"? Thanks!

opened a Ṁ4,269 NO at 50% order

@AnnCummings if you purchase NO shares >50% or YES <50%, then that's a good bet if you expect it to resolve at 50. however, i expect most other market participants will agree, so it's unlikely you can bet on either price

@Ziddletwix Thank you for the kind explanation!

@Ziddletwix it seems you are very successful here! I thought I better follow you to be sure!! haha I searched for "VP dates Erika Kirk". That is here somewhere already right?? Or maybe: VP's guest Erika Kirk at Greenland event"

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy