Federal Reserve May Meeting Prop Bets [Manifold TV]
9
660Ṁ4529
resolved May 2
Resolved
YES
Powell says "PCE"
Resolved
YES
A WSJ journalist gets to ask Powell a question
Resolved
NO
Powell talks about Taylor Rule
Resolved
YES
Powell says "inflation expectations"
Resolved
YES
Powell says "Maximum employment and stable prices"
Resolved
NO
"soft landing" exactly mentioned
Resolved
YES
Powell mentions the pandemic
Resolved
YES
"tight" is used to describe the labor market
Resolved
YES
Powell mentions that we could need tighter policy conditional on events
Resolved
YES
A Washington Post journalist asked a question
Resolved
YES
A Financial Times journalist asked a question
Resolved
YES
"pandemic" uttered 5 or more times
Resolved
NO
"housing price" mentioned
Resolved
YES
A journalist asked a question relating to presidential election
Resolved
YES
YouTube livestream longer than 1 hour 45 minutes
Resolved
NO
The Audience Laughs
Resolved
YES
Powell takes off his glasses before exiting the stage (n/a if not shown)
Resolved
NO
S&P 500 > $5100 at the end of the livestream
Resolved
NO
S&P 500 < $5000 at the end of the livestream
Resolved
NO
Powell gives a percentage probability estimate for something

The Federal Reserve will hold its next policy meeting on May 1, 2024. After a decision is made and statement published, Jerome Powell will give an elaborate speech in the FOMC Press Conference on May 1, 2024 13:30 EST.

Analysts pay close attention to the tone of the speech at the FOMC Press Conference and analyse what gets to be mentioned to determine whether the Fed is hawkish or dovish and what could be its next move.

Watch here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0unztmcLvA

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Closing market to prevent trading on ambiguity. Would love if people could point out timestamps if something happened I missed.

Taylor rule is a carryover from the last market - he definitely talked about the concepts surrounding it, but didn't mention it specifically, to my knowledge? Let me know if I'm wrong there.

If no one points out timestamps, I'm going to wait until transcripts are available and search based on those to resolve.

@DanMan314 Just finished resolving based on this: https://youtubetranscript.com/?v=o0unztmcLvA

bought Ṁ111 YES

bought Ṁ15 YES

he just mentioned their probability estimates from the last period - should this already resolve yes?

@shankypanky Ah I missed this. I'll review the tapes but probably - if you have a timestamp let me know.

bought Ṁ50 YES

@DanMan314 live streams don't have timestamps but once the stream ends I'll grab one for review

@DanMan314 listening for it now btw!

@DanMan314 okay pretty sure I found the particular point I was thinking of and the actual percentage he gives (he does talk about forecasters and his probabilities) is the growth and forecasters' perspective of whether it will sustain, but he doesn't give a percentage of that probability/outcome.

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