Conditional on room temp superconductors by the end of the year, will we have commercial nuclear fusion by 2030? | Manifold

Conditional on room temp superconductors by the end of the year, will we have commercial nuclear fusion by 2030?

16

1kṀ303

resolved Aug 15

Resolved

N/A

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1D

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This market resolves N/A if there is not strong consensus that a material that is superconductive at room temperature and ambient pressure has been discovered by the end of 2023.

If there is such a consensus (for example, around LK-99), this market resolves based on whether nuclear fusion is used commercially by 2030.

Commercially means there are active, real-world use cases for nuclear fusion. A lab demonstrating above break-even production of energy would not be sufficient, but, for example, meaningful use of fusion for power or heat generation outside a laboratory context would.

superconductivity

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So, what will happen if the conditional is not met?

@HenkPoley Resolves N/A on Jan 1st, 2024, which means invested mana is returned to participants with no profit or loss for either side.

It's well past Jan 1st, 2024 now. We still have no room temperature ambient pressure superconductors.

Oh yup, @mods can we N/A?

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