MANIFOLD
Artemis II Prop Bets
33
Ṁ1.5kṀ4.4k
Apr 10
96%
Returns to Earth with all of its crew alive
90%
Mission duration remains within the planned 10-day timeframe
90%
Crew members stay health the entire trip
88%
Total mission duration under 9 days 6 hours (planned for 9d1h46m)
87%
Orion spacecraft successfully completes free-return trajectory around the Moon
87%
Splashdown occurs on or before April 10, 2026 as planned
17%
Total mission duration under 9 days (planned for 9d1h46m)
86%
Artemis II successfully completes trans-lunar injection burn
86%
No major course corrections needed beyond minor adjustments
83%
Any crew member gives an on-camera thumbs up during the mission
82%
Mission achieves the planned distance record of 252,000 miles from Earth

Resolution Criteria

Artemis II launched on April 1, 2026, from the Kennedy Space Center. This market resolves based on specific outcomes during the mission. Outcomes should be verifiable through official NASA sources at https://www.nasa.gov/mission/artemis-ii/ or major news outlets covering the mission in real-time.

Background

The ten-day mission is carrying NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, and Christina Koch, along with Canadian Space Agency astronaut Jeremy Hansen, on a free-return trajectory around the Moon and back to Earth. Glover will become the first person of color, Koch the first woman, and Wiseman the oldest person to leave low Earth orbit. Hansen will become the first non-U.S. citizen to travel beyond low Earth orbit and to the Moon's vicinity. This is the second flight of the Space Launch System (SLS), the first crewed mission of the Orion spacecraft, and the first crewed mission beyond low Earth orbit since Apollo 17 in 1972.

Considerations

Unlike Apollo 8 and Apollo 10, which orbited the Moon without landing, Artemis II will not enter lunar orbit. Instead, Artemis II will fly around the Moon on a free-return trajectory, like Apollo 13 in 1970. Artemis 2 astronauts will only spend about three hours on their closest pass of the moon's surface.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy