Resolution Criteria
Artemis II launched on April 1, 2026, from the Kennedy Space Center. This market resolves based on specific outcomes during the mission. Outcomes should be verifiable through official NASA sources at https://www.nasa.gov/mission/artemis-ii/ or major news outlets covering the mission in real-time.
Background
The ten-day mission is carrying NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, and Christina Koch, along with Canadian Space Agency astronaut Jeremy Hansen, on a free-return trajectory around the Moon and back to Earth. Glover will become the first person of color, Koch the first woman, and Wiseman the oldest person to leave low Earth orbit. Hansen will become the first non-U.S. citizen to travel beyond low Earth orbit and to the Moon's vicinity. This is the second flight of the Space Launch System (SLS), the first crewed mission of the Orion spacecraft, and the first crewed mission beyond low Earth orbit since Apollo 17 in 1972.
Considerations
Unlike Apollo 8 and Apollo 10, which orbited the Moon without landing, Artemis II will not enter lunar orbit. Instead, Artemis II will fly around the Moon on a free-return trajectory, like Apollo 13 in 1970. Artemis 2 astronauts will only spend about three hours on their closest pass of the moon's surface.
Update 2026-04-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding course corrections: Small or routine mid-route corrections are expected and will not affect resolution. Only a significant, unexpected correction (like Apollo 13's MCC-7) would count as a major course correction. A not-totally-free-return trajectory still resolves YES for free-return related questions.
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@Sketchy Reached moon sphere of influence and didn't bother with a couple of possible course correction burns so the I don't see any way you can say TLI was not successfully completed. Should resolve AFAICS
@Sketchy
If a correction is required to achieve the planned mission goals (e.g. reaching the intended distance), would that count as a major course correction, even if the burn itself is small? And if a correction is required to ensure a safe return to Earth, should that count as a major course correction and mean that the trajectory is not a free-return?
@Tantalost Small course corrections mid-route are almost universal. I think the spirit of the market is more about a significant, unexpected need to correct, like Apollo 13 MCC-7.
So a not-totally-free-return still resolves yes. I recognize that's still a little ambiguous... but it's a prop bets market. sorry.
@Sketchy Looks like they are on a way that perfectly that they even skipped some of the planned small mid-route corrections. Wow
@Sketchy
The altitude record is 248,573 miles. so if they reached say 249,000 miles it would be the record but it wouldn't be the planned 252,000 miles so would this resolve yes or no?
If no what if they reach like 251,900 miles?