psst is a new implementation of Shamir's Secret Sharing: https://github.com/Sjlver/psst
From the README:
`psst` is a system for storing secrets without a single point of failure. `psst` helps the user to split a secret into up to four parts. Each part in isolation reveals nothing about the secret (except its length). Any two parts combined allow the secret to be restored.
The main goal of `psst` is simplicity. It is a system that can be used with just pen, paper and a six-sided dice. `psst` is great for people who want to deeply understand what they do and verify every step, and for anyone who has fun with information theory and cryptography.
This question will resolve "YES" if psst is featured on the front page of Hacker News (https://news.ycombinator.com/). I plan to post it on the site on the morning of Wednesday January 17.
You can potentially manipulate this question if you buy cheap YES shares and go upvote the post. Please only do that if you genuinely find it interesting.
1,000People are also trading
Thanks everyone for having chimed in! After a lot of thinking, I've decided on the following:
I won't create a Hacker News post myself. That wouldn't be valuable anymore, since psst has already made it to the front page.
In the present market, we have a contradiction between the title and what has been said by me in the description and the comments. This is the main argument for resolving as N/A.
@MartinModrak made good arguments below about the "spirit of the question". I mostly agree with this, and think that YES would have been a better resolution than NO. I'm not happy about resolving N/A, but feel I can't resolve this YES with full integrity.
My lesson learned: think more carefully about resolution criteria and unexpected developments.
@Sjlver Note that another market about psst is still open. Earn some Mana if you find a security issue! https://manifold.markets/Sjlver/will-a-security-flaw-be-discovered
Wow, a re-post by user PaulHoule is currently on the front page: https://news.ycombinator.com/news. I wouldn't have expected that.
Manifold community, what do you think:
Should I still follow through with a "Show HN" post next Wednesday? It might be perceived as duplicate, and bad self-promotion.
How should I resolve this market? I'm open to suggestions if they come with good reasons.
For now, this market remains about my potential post on Jan 17, but I'm curious to hear your thoughts.
@Sjlver I think the original wording strongly implies the post does not have to be by you to resolve YES. Also, I think this is in line with the spirit of the questions (i.e. will your work be considered interesting by HN users). A repost will extremely likely get less attention than the original, but that would not prove your work was less interesting. And I say that as a NO holder.
@MartinModrak Disagree,
). I plan to post it on the site on the morning of Wednesday January 17.
This was about his post on that date, not ANY post and not on any other day, not two posts, this is explicit in the plan laid out.
You can potentially manipulate this question if you buy cheap YES shares and go upvote the post.
“The” post… it’s a specific post.
@PatrickDelaney The title is "Will psst make it" not "Will my post of psst make it". The description has "if psst is featured" not "if my post of psst is featured", so at least on literal wording, I think this is pretty clear cut. And for the spirit of the market, I think the statement about OPs own post is IMHO best read as an assurance that somebody will post it to HN on Jan 17th at the latest.
The manipulation statement is IMHO irrelevant. Yes, you would have been able to manipulate the resolution by upvoting the OPs post if they would actually post it (that's probably the wrong conditional form, but I hope it is still comprehensible). But why should a possible manipulation opportunity influence the resolution criteria?
@MartinModrak Utterances matter. Here is a comment from two days ago:
"For the purposes of this market, I'll consider my own "Show HN" post.
Yay, someone else posted a link already: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38920651
For the purpose of this market, I'll consider only my own "Show HN" post that is planned to go live on Jan 17. But I am flattered :)
@Emerald I'm happy that you like it!
I've created an issue to remember adding a version for US Letter paper: https://github.com/Sjlver/psst/issues/1
Since this is a side project, I can't promise that I'll get to it soon... but I'll try.
@Emerald Surprisingly, I had some time today. The US Letter version is now available.
If you end up trying it, I'd love to hear about your experience!
Have you tried posting anything to HackerNews? Typically anything cool that you built gets immediately buried by marketers promoting things, NYT and WSJ articles, fluff being manipulated by consulting companies. I would highly advise posting it to, "SHOW" rather than the front page. HackerNews has become highly hostile to individual software developers over the years as marketers discovered it. However, marketers can't make things so if you post it there it can get traction.