Will Destiny endorse/use Manifold Markets in 2022?
187
175
Ṁ5.4K
resolved Nov 13
Resolved
YES

Resolves yes if Destiny creates an account and trades/creates markets.

Alternatively, if he shows it on stream in a positive light or links his viewers to the site in any way then it will resolve yes.

We also have an overlay that streamers can place on their stream with a bot that allows viewers to trade on markets through chat commands. This would allow him to feature a market during debates/guests and viewers could live trade on it. If he does this then the market would also resolve to yes.

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I've made another market that only counts Destiny actually joining the site.

Ok I'm resolving to yes.

Although he didnt post a link himself, he showed and clicked links on stream to it. Watched the live feed for a couple of minutes whilst making jokes about the site, mentioned how the stocks memes are great and that he'll be adding a channel for it in Discord (albeit might have to ban people from spamming market links with "Buy Yes" in chat nonstop 😅).

These show him interacting with it and framing it in a positive light for me to be comfortable to resolve this to yes.

The first taste for some of you guys with how creating specific market resolution requirements can actually be challenging. It isnt always easy to foresee what they should be that aligns with what information you hope to get out of a market. I probably actually did a bad ish job here at outlining sufficiently detailed resolution criteria.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@DavidChee I’m only here because he did that, even though I saw it in Reddit a little bit before he brought it up so I’d say this is a good call.

predicted NO

@odecay This wasn't positive. I don't think this counts?

predicted YES

@thesourceofsound we are edging

predicted YES

@thesourceofsound i think mentioning they are working together is an endorsement

@odecay Damn I was busy Friday-Saturday with irl stuff and didnt have the chance to watch it and seems like it's been striked so I cant watch the vod :/

I guess there isnt a mirrored version anywhere I can watch?

Seems like it wasnt that straight forward whether the market should resolve yes. I was leaning towards resolving yes based on what it sounds like was said from reading comments here, but I'll wait for now until I can see the clip or a more definite endorsement occurs.

@DavidChee Oh found vyneervods, let me take a watch

@DavidChee Ok I watched the part where he watched the live feed and talked about it for a couple mins.

When people first started linking the clips I quickly clicked it to listen in for a few seconds while outside and heard him discussing it with a male orbiter who was presenting some concerns. I didnt manage to find this part whilst skimming through, does anyone know the timestamp to this?

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Oh nooo.. the recent comments from destiny...

bought Ṁ30 of NO

By voting no, we are engaging in this platform. By engaging in this platform we are increasing the probability of a YES payout. 🤔🤔

bought Ṁ5 of NO

That yes chance is too high. This is a value no at 94%. Destiny following through seems high. Fundamentals of Destiny promises are in my favor.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@TheSaltDealer he already endorsed it, it's a no-brainer. "if he shows it on stream in a positive light or links his viewers to the site in any way then it will resolve yes". this is so freee

predicted NO

@Ethanf52d My payout is big, but my risk is small. I'll take the 1 in 20 for 5$, I belieb

predicted YES

@TheSaltDealer thanks for your donation 👍

bought Ṁ100 of YES
bought Ṁ250 of NO

@odecay i don't think this counts for the description rules. Unless "linking" isn't meant to be taken literally. @DavidChee do ytou know?

Oh what just happened?

bought Ṁ400 of YES

@DavidChee 🐌

predicted YES

@DavidChee He talked about the plans to develop the discord bot.

bought Ṁ95 of YES

IM ALL IN ON THIS ONE BABY

bought Ṁ10 of YES

HE JUST ENDORSED. BUY BUY BUY

bought Ṁ50 of YES

This was in response to some complainig about Manifold Markets

@hardy Lol what was the complaint so we can fix it :p

@hardy Is there a way to check the message logs so I can see the full context of these messages?

@SkyLounge Is this you? Would love to hear your feedback.

predicted YES

@DavidChee https://rustlesearch.dev/?username=Sky_lounge&channel=Destinygg&start_date=2021-11-08&end_date=2022-11-08&text=1 full comment

predicted YES

@DavidChee Check the link @novodrajj posted.

@novodrajj thanks!
Ah okay, seems that @SkyLounge was mostly concerned with how our markets fundamentally work and them not being great as "permanent stocks".

I 100% agree with this. Our markets are not at all optimised to act as permanent stock as they are tied to a probability. Because of this, there is a misalignment between trading on the sentiment of an orbiter vs trading for profit. This makes them less interesting to trade on and not at all actionable for any possible integrations with Destiny's stream.

We were initially taking a very hands-off approach and just letting the Destiny community experiment with different types of markets and seeing how they decided to use them. But now that we are planning to partner with Destiny we will talk to the prominent market creators and suggest ways they can make their markets more robust.

I am planning to do an in-depth writeup of their current flaws and ways resolution criteria can be set that fix them for their use case as stocks. My main idea is that the stock is tied to a poll (eg. could be monthly with tier 3 & 4 subs allowed to rate orbiters) so users are trading on what the results of the poll will be. As the market will resolve to 100% or 0% at some point it fixes the problem of users just trading completely randomly since if they do people will correct the probability and they will lose money. We will also just add a metric shitton of liquidity/limit orders to the stock markets so individuals can't move the probability as much lol.

@DavidChee *My idea is specifically for if we set up official orbiter stocks. Obviously doing a centralised poll isn't going to work for random user created markets, but I think there are other solutions for those which are less good but will still make huge improvements.

predicted YES

@DavidChee I think it will be a good idea for you to go on stream and give DGG an introduction/walkthrough of the platform since there is a bit of a learning curve.