O1 visa is a special US work visa with a high 90's% acceptance rate. It can just be a bit hard to be eligible and isn't cheap. To be clear this market refers to the petition being approved, not the actual visa which you normally get a couple of weeks later at a US embassy in your country.

Finally got around to paying the lawyer and officially initiating the process on October 25th. Had hoped to do it earlier but was busy + still needed more evidence (which Manifest was great for).

~3 months from engagement with the lawyer, until they submit the petition, is the timeline they gave me. Which would be late Jan.

Then, it takes 2-3 weeks to get a response if I pay an extra $2500 for expedited processing, or anywhere from 5 weeks to 5 months with regular processing depending on how busy it is. Last I checked it was less than 2 months. Currently not sure if I (or Manifold) pay for expedited processing.

Sometimes after filing the government will request more evidence which can add a few weeks - months onto the process.

Not going to share my document containing all my O1 evidence as it would take some time to hide some of the slightly more sensitive info, although most of it isn't. But if you have any questions happy to answer.

The rejected option will be chosen if after the request for more evidence, I get rejected for this petition. Even if I intend to reapply again.

Having an accurate timeline would be super valuable to me as it will help me know how to structure my plans for next year.