Will The FOMC Stay With Their Statement Of 3 Rate Cuts During 2024?
Resolution:
Resolves YES If They Cut 3 Times
Resolves NO If They Cut 1, 2, 4 or more.
CONTEXT:
Fed holds rates steady but indicates three cuts coming sometime this year
CLARIFICATIONS:
03/20/2024: 3 Meetings each with a rate cut satisfies this as YES, no less, no more.
03/25/2024: The meeting which 3 cuts come from, MUST be during a Calendar session, and not an emergency session/intermeeting cuts, etc.
This market extends after every meeting.
JANUARY 2024 : RATES HELD
MARCH 2024 : RATES HELD
APRIL/MAY 2024 : RATES HELD
JUNE 2024 : RATES HELD
JULY 2024 : RATES HELD
SEPTEMBER 2024 : 1st Cut - September Meeting
50 basis-point rate cut
NOVEMBER 2024 : TBD
DECEMBER 2024 : TBD
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SIMILAR MARKET
1,000
3.00@riverwalk3 Clarified:
CLARIFICATIONS:
03/20/2024: 3 Meetings each with a rate cut satisfies this as YES, no less, no more.
Powell says the Fed doesn’t need to be ‘in a hurry’ to reduce interest rates
Published Thu, Nov 14 20243:00 PM EST
CNBC
1st Cut - September Meeting
50 basis-point rate cut
Wasn’t the statement you’re referencing stating an expected net 75bps cut, ie could happen in a single meeting or could require 100bps if there’s a 25bps increase first? Maybe worth clarifying your title to match your specific resolution better?
Eg see this link contrasted with headline you quoted https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/how-to-read-fed-dot-plot-explained/
@Tyler31 Sorry just now seeing there was already comment thread along the same lines. Anyway, I think that adds to my point that the title is a bit confusing
@Tyler31
I understand some may be confused, but It is clarified in the description.
I also made this new market to help show a difference in the 2 meanings that could be taken from their "Official Statement"(Not just the headline of a news site).
@SirCryptomind Thanks. Don’t mean to nitpick. I am curious whether you interpret the intent of statement differently. Or if not, then why not edit the title? Agree that it’s clear in description so no big deal either way
@riverwalk3 Clarified:
CLARIFICATIONS:
03/20/2024: 3 Meetings each with a rate cut satisfies this as YES, no less, no more.
@DanielTilkin Right, this sticks with the FMOC Calendar and increases don't count.
I will add it, like I have/had it on others.
03/25/2024: The meeting which 3 cuts come from, MUST be during a Calendar session, and not an emergency session/intermeeting cuts, etc.