Will The FOMC Stay With Their March 2024 Indication In Their Statement Of Having 3 Rate Cuts During 2024?
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Jun 12
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FED FUNDS : UNCH (5.25-5.5%)

Will The FOMC Stay With Their Statement Of 3 Rate Cuts During 2024?

Resolution:

Resolves YES If They Cut 3 Times

Resolves NO If They Cut 1, 2, 4 or more.

CONTEXT:

Fed holds rates steady but indicates three cuts coming sometime this year

CLARIFICATIONS:

  • 03/20/2024: 3 Meetings each with a rate cut satisfies this as YES, no less, no more.

  • 03/25/2024: The meeting which 3 cuts come from, MUST be during a Calendar session, and not an emergency session/intermeeting cuts, etc.

  • This market extends after every meeting.

    • JANUARY 2024 : RATES HELD

    • MARCH 2024 : RATES HELD

    • APRIL/MAY 2024 : RATES HELD

    • JUNE 2024 : TBD

    • JULY 2024 : TBD

    • SEPTEMBER 2024 : TBD

    • NOVEMBER 2024 : TBD

    • DECEMBER 2024 : TBD

DISCLAIMER

  • I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE

  • DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.

  • If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.


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@riverwalk3 Clarified:
CLARIFICATIONS:

  • 03/20/2024: 3 Meetings each with a rate cut satisfies this as YES, no less, no more.

Wasn’t the statement you’re referencing stating an expected net 75bps cut, ie could happen in a single meeting or could require 100bps if there’s a 25bps increase first? Maybe worth clarifying your title to match your specific resolution better?

Eg see this link contrasted with headline you quoted https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/how-to-read-fed-dot-plot-explained/

@Tyler31 Sorry just now seeing there was already comment thread along the same lines. Anyway, I think that adds to my point that the title is a bit confusing

@Tyler31
I understand some may be confused, but It is clarified in the description.
I also made this new market to help show a difference in the 2 meanings that could be taken from their "Official Statement"(Not just the headline of a news site).

@SirCryptomind Thanks. Don’t mean to nitpick. I am curious whether you interpret the intent of statement differently. Or if not, then why not edit the title? Agree that it’s clear in description so no big deal either way

reposted

reposted
The Office gif. Ellie Kemper as Erin Hannon shakes her head slowly, with a slight smile and a shrug, indicating "maybe."

Does it just mean they reach 4.50 basis points by the end of the year? Ie if they cut once by 25 basis points and again by 50 basis points, then it still counts.

@riverwalk3 That would be 2.
3 Meetings each with a rate cut satisfies this, no less, no more.

@riverwalk3 Clarified:
CLARIFICATIONS:

  • 03/20/2024: 3 Meetings each with a rate cut satisfies this as YES, no less, no more.

bought Ṁ60 NO

@SirCryptomind So intermeeting rate cuts, and rate increases, have no effect, right?

@DanielTilkin Right, this sticks with the FMOC Calendar and increases don't count.
I will add it, like I have/had it on others.

03/25/2024: The meeting which 3 cuts come from, MUST be during a Calendar session, and not an emergency session/intermeeting cuts, etc.


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