After my Bahamas trip is over, @noumena and I will be living together for a week in New York in order to determine whether we're compatible enough to share a room. Details:
- Regardless of the outcome, we've committed to at least being housemates in https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-we-successfully-rent-the-4bed1 for at least a month, but this market only resolves yes if we decide to be roommates
- I'd bet (9:1) that Rachel is my gf.
- I've been with Rachel for months, in some sense, but the total time we've spent together is < 1 week total
Enopoletus Harding bought M$15 of NO5 days ago
won't happen
> .. 1 in 5 chance
that math is wrong. even in the worlds where we date it's not garunteed that we'd be good roomates.
Actually, I'm uncertain whether us dating makes us better or worse at being roomies
Both Sinclair and I are more emotionally resilient to cynical traders than the average bear! (in other words, we're willing to bear the bearish?)
This market is, at 92%, implicitly higher than Sinclair's 9:1 prediction that we'll date (it implies at least a 1 in 5 chance that we'd be roommates even if we don't date).
Just added M$400 in liquidity to this market to incentivize better betting, but I think that the majority of the useful information is still going to be out of bettors' hands. I am also offering to answer *most* questions that would help traders decide on this.