https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Maniswipe-f7d812d3685d41cdac4c4d52febfb6e8
the tinder/tiktok of forecasting:
swipe left to bet NO and right to bet YES (or up to skip)
just the question, the odds, and some sense of slippage/liquidity.
Also, the recomendation feed could be wayy accurate. There's a straightforward metric to optimize (chance you'll bet), very clean data from showing one market at a time, and a lot of data because people will go through markets quickly.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,098 | |
| 2 | Ṁ187 | |
| 3 | Ṁ128 | |
| 4 | Ṁ118 | |
| 5 | Ṁ23 |
I think it was a fine experiment and it is arguably ok and worth keeping around, but it is definitely not a success. Took a lot of dev time to keep running, yet didn't see sufficient usage or excitement. Kinda mid. Will @SG convince me that swipe is actually good?
@Sinclair It's also currently the only reason why we have the old feed recommendation algo around in functions.sql, which is like 400 lines of very complex sql code.
@firstuserhere I for one, swipe up and down between markets, but tap the YES/NO buttons to bet. I'm curious how this will resolve if the left/right swipe is not popular, but everything else about the interface is.
@KCS Reasonable interpretation to me seems like this is about success of the overall swipey-card interface rather than the specifics of whether users choose to tap or swipe to place their bets. But yeah, wouldn't hurt to clarify.
@KCS Same. I suppose I do swipe when I want to skip a market so I do think it’s fine to still consider the current mobile “home” interface a “swipe” interface.
Kinda Arbitrage market: https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/the-old-manifold-home-ui-vs-the-new?r=Zmlyc3R1c2VyaGVyZQ
I think the idea is actually interesting I just think one pitfall is the fact that it leads to an increase in casual betting. While not inherently negative I think that people betting off a title and no other information can lead to some problems, like if someone interprets a title to mean x, but in the description extra information is added to make the market actually mean y. But in all I think it's cool and I actually use it alot. :)
@Sinclair Pretty cool, but is there a reason this is the site I get when I save manifold markets to my homepage on my phone?
