Will Truth Social shares crash in value by the end of 2024? (A drop of 75% from their launch peak)
Dec 30

Donald Trump has succeeded in floating Truth Social on the stockmarket through a merger between DWAC (a SPAC set up for this purpose) with his Trump Media & Technology company.

Trump owes 60% of the company and you can see how the shares are doing here:


Many people have expressed the view that the company is worth nowhere near this amount since Truth Social has made so little revenue. Are people buying the shares as a way of donating their money to Trump with the hope that he will pay them back by enriching them if he wis the election? Or is there some genuine value in this company?

Trump can't sell his shares for the first six months (though there are theories about him being able to do this anyway - /Kolyin/will-donald-trump-use-his-trump-med), but could they crash in value if he starts divesting shares after this point?

The highest value that the shares have reached in the past 24 hours is $79.38 per share. Will the share price fall by at least 75% from this price?

If the share price falls below $19.85 according to this page (not including out-of-hours trading) by the last working day of 2024, this market will resolve to YES. If the final trading day of 2024 ends without this happening, the market will resolve to NO.

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The shares have been tumbling fast!

Theyโ€™ve dropped by over 10 dollars in the last few days and now theyโ€™re down below $23. If they drop another 3 dollars, this will resolve to YES!

Update - shares have fallen from a high of $79.38 to $32.41 by the end of today's trading.

That's down almost 60%. There's still a large chunk left to fall before this market can resolve to YES, but it's looking a bit more likely than it was a week ago!


@HarrisonNathan Google is showing the all time high at the point of market creation as $79.38. I'm using that as the launch peak, so if the shares fall below $19.85, this resolves to YES.

If the share price goes even higher than $79.38, this doesn't change and this market is still about whether it falls below $19.85!

@SimonGrayson Got you, I simply misread your description. Thanks for clarifying anyway.

bought แน€10 NO

When do lockups end?

@Jason1e41 Media reports have been saying six months.

I presume that means six months from this week's merger and float, so we'd be talking about the end of September - well within the date range for this market.

But other people might know more?

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