EDIT: See Ciuccio's comment below. There is an inadvertent ambiguity here, and to resolve it I will resolve the question strictly as originally stated in the operative language: this market will resolve YES if Donald Trump transacts any DJT shares before the end of the nominal lockup period. Even if those shares were not subject to a lockup provision.
Donald Trump's Trump Media & Technology Group will go public if the merger with Digital World Acquisition Corp. goes through. (This market will resolve N/A if it does not.) Trump will own nearly 60% of the shares in the public entity, which will trade under the ticker symbol "DJT." Currently, it is estimated that his stake in DJT will be worth billions of dollars.
Trump has a pressing need for cash, to make loans to his campaign if necessary, to fund his ongoing trials and appeals, and to pay damages or post bonds in cases that he has lost. But under the terms of the merger agreement, Trump is subject to a lockup term. For six months, he cannot sell any of those shares (or lend them, sell options on them, pledge them as collateral, or use them in any other way to get cash).
There is a great deal of speculation about whether Trump will find a way around the lockup period, such as asking the board of DWAC to grant him a waiver (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/21/business/trump-truth-social-merger.html) or creatively interpreting the terms of the agreement (https://twitter.com/quantian1/status/1771343852856635533).
This market will resolve YES if Donald Trump transacts any DJT shares before the end of the nominal lockup period.
(In the event a court blocks the transaction or the deal fails in some way, this market will resolve YES if contracts were signed or there is some other objective indicator that a firm deal was reached. It will resolve NO if there is merely talk of a deal or a promise to do a trade that never happens.)
I may have to use my discretion to resolve this question, and I will not trade in this market.
The lock up agreement: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1849635/000119312521308146/d230221dex102.htm
Related questions
Note that on April 15, DJT issued a prospectus listing the sale of over 100,000 shares of DJT owned by Donald Trump himself, including both shares he received in the SPAC and the earnout shares: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1849635/000114036124019745/ny20026576x1_s1.htm
Those shares aren't currently for sale, but this is a definite step in that direction.
Note that the prospectus also lists the sale of warrants. I would not resolve yes upon the sale of warrants alone.
Just a few notes on this to avoid confusion for traders: The lock up agreement covers 90 million shares. Trump currently has ~78 million shares, but also has earnout awards that will bring this total to ~114 million shortly (the targets of $12.50/$15/$17.50 vwap of 20/30 days should all get cleared). This would leave trump with 90 million locked up shares, but 24 million to be freely transacted. The way the question is written it seems like this would resolve yes if those 24 are sold, but also feels like that’s not the spirit of the question.
@Ciuccio Thanks for the clarification, I wasn't aware of the earnout provision. You're right that the original intent was to get at him selling the locked up shares, but I think the terms of the question should be taken as stated: "This market will resolve YES if Donald Trump transacts any DJT shares before the end of the nominal lockup period."
Since the trigger is stated clearly, I'll enforce it as written. If he sells any of the shares, whether or not they were subject to the lockup clause, I'll resolve as yes.
(I think this does get to the heart of the matter too, to an extent. There will be consequences to him selling a significant clump of shares (to the share price, to his reputation, etc.) that would discourage him from doing so, making it a pretty notable event if he does move those shares.)
@BTE It's not his choice, and I don't think he'd be very interested; if the state dumped half a billion DJT shares on the market, it would have a pretty ugly effect on the price of the rest of the shares.
@Kolyin The state would also presumably be bound bound by the lockup. But why would they want them anyway, right? Take Trump Tower and rename it Chump Tower for April Fools Day.