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MANIFOLD
Will this market have 12 or more unique predictors?
14
Ṁ290Ṁ4.5k
resolved Apr 11
Resolved
YES

Will 12 or more people put in a prediction on this market?

Bots don't count towards the total. If I predict, I do count.

I may close this market early if the answer is YES but I won't extend the close date if the answer is NO.

This is the latest version of this market - each time the target increases by one so it should be a bit less of a certain thing. Here's how the previous markets went:

Six or more? Target hit in 7 minutes

Seven or more? Target hit in 1 hour 37 minutes

Eight or more? Target hit in 2 hours 12 minutes

Nine or more? Target hit in 12 hours and 8 minutes

Ten or more? Target hit in 29 minutes

11 or more? Target hit in 1 hour 32 minutes

What will 12 bring? At what level is there finally value in predicting NO?

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Four hours to hit the target and one NO predictor...

Here's the next increment of this market - will 13 be the unlucky number for YES predictors?