Will the crew and passengers of the Titanic explorer be found safely by the end of the week?
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resolved Jun 23
Resolved
NO

A submarine containing tourists exploring the wreck of the Titanic has gone missing and there is currently a search underway:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jun/19/titanic-tourist-submarine-missing-north-atlantic

Will the submarine be located with everyone on board alive (or will everyone who was on board be found alive) by the end of the week?

Resolution criterea:

  • "The end of the week" means the end of Sunday UK time. So the closing time of this market.

  • For this to count as "found safely" and resolve to YES, they need to be located with some chance of rescue. So locating the submarine without knowing whether anyone on board is alive or even locating it with the knowledge that the passengers are alive without anyone being able to get to them before their air runs out would resolve to NO.

Let me know if you would like any other elements of the resolution criterea to be clarified.

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predicted NO

They’re all dead

predicted NO

@tbone_steak any bodies?

predicted NO

@higherLEVELING There might be remains of some kind, but the sort of failure that occurred would not leave individual bodies. Think an order of magnitude more pressure than a hydraulic press.

predicted NO

Welp, catch you boyos on the next market.

predicted NO

Honestly. Imo.... the submersible imploded 1:45 min into the decent. There is no credible evidence from the coast guard saying the sounds are man made.

Here is why I belive this:

  • The window is graded for 1300m of pressure, not 4000.

  • The submersible is made of fiberglass (hard to bang on without impeding the integrity of the material. Ie with a wrench or hands could damage the hull)

  • Once fiberglass fails it shatters, not crumbles.

  • The contact was lost 1:45 into decent (takes 2:30 to reach titanic)

  • The submersible is designed to release the ballasts even in the case that the crew passes out.

Chances are they died very quickly and didn't even know it happened (which is a much kinder end than suffocating to death for 5 days)

Hope I'm wrong, but these are the facts of the matter. There is likely no submersible to find at this point.

predicted NO

Looks like my analysis might be correct.

Sad, but I'd prefer dying this way than suffocating for 5 days.

What if the submarine comes back up and everything is fine except there's an extra guy in there for some reason?

predicted YES

.

@Mirek That would resolve to YES… Though it seems like a scenario where there’s “an extra guy in there for some reason” is mutually exclusive with everything else being fine…

predicted YES

@SimonGrayson Great, thank you.

@Mirek If you’re trading on inside info about some guy sneaking off the Titanic and into a sealed submarine, Manifold’s going to end up in the news…

predicted YES

@SimonGrayson The submarine can only be opened by 17 bolts from the outside.

predicted YES

@SimonGrayson The wife of OceanGate's CEO is descended from a famous couple who died on the Titanic. Just think about that for a second...

predicted YES

@Mirek You can’t make this up.

predicted YES

@NicoDelon I am not, it is true!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65981277 [Missing Titanic submersible: The health risks facing the crew]

predicted NO

@Undox Being dead sure is a pretty severe health risk

betting no in hopes that someone feels incentivized to manipulate this market and find the missing passengers 😉

they have less than 24 hours of air left if they're still down there

I hate asking this... but... do all passengers need to be alive?

predicted NO

@Blomfilter oh nvm it says "or will everyone who was on board be found alive) by the end of the week?"

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