Will the crew and passengers of the Titanic explorer be found safely by the end of the week?
Will the crew and passengers of the Titanic explorer be found safely by the end of the week?
222
2kṀ170k
resolved Jun 23
Resolved
NO

A submarine containing tourists exploring the wreck of the Titanic has gone missing and there is currently a search underway:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jun/19/titanic-tourist-submarine-missing-north-atlantic

Will the submarine be located with everyone on board alive (or will everyone who was on board be found alive) by the end of the week?

Resolution criterea:

  • "The end of the week" means the end of Sunday UK time. So the closing time of this market.

  • For this to count as "found safely" and resolve to YES, they need to be located with some chance of rescue. So locating the submarine without knowing whether anyone on board is alive or even locating it with the knowledge that the passengers are alive without anyone being able to get to them before their air runs out would resolve to NO.

Let me know if you would like any other elements of the resolution criterea to be clarified.

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predictedNO 1y

They’re all dead

predictedNO 1y

@tbone_steak any bodies?

predictedNO 1y

@higherLEVELING There might be remains of some kind, but the sort of failure that occurred would not leave individual bodies. Think an order of magnitude more pressure than a hydraulic press.

1y
predictedNO 1y

Welp, catch you boyos on the next market.

predictedNO 1y

Honestly. Imo.... the submersible imploded 1:45 min into the decent. There is no credible evidence from the coast guard saying the sounds are man made.

Here is why I belive this:

  • The window is graded for 1300m of pressure, not 4000.

  • The submersible is made of fiberglass (hard to bang on without impeding the integrity of the material. Ie with a wrench or hands could damage the hull)

  • Once fiberglass fails it shatters, not crumbles.

  • The contact was lost 1:45 into decent (takes 2:30 to reach titanic)

  • The submersible is designed to release the ballasts even in the case that the crew passes out.

Chances are they died very quickly and didn't even know it happened (which is a much kinder end than suffocating to death for 5 days)

Hope I'm wrong, but these are the facts of the matter. There is likely no submersible to find at this point.

predictedNO 1y

Looks like my analysis might be correct.

Sad, but I'd prefer dying this way than suffocating for 5 days.

1y

What if the submarine comes back up and everything is fine except there's an extra guy in there for some reason?

predictedYES

.

1y

@Mirek That would resolve to YES… Though it seems like a scenario where there’s “an extra guy in there for some reason” is mutually exclusive with everything else being fine…

predictedYES 1y

@SimonGrayson Great, thank you.

1y

@Mirek If you’re trading on inside info about some guy sneaking off the Titanic and into a sealed submarine, Manifold’s going to end up in the news…

predictedYES 1y

@SimonGrayson The submarine can only be opened by 17 bolts from the outside.

predictedYES 1y

@SimonGrayson The wife of OceanGate's CEO is descended from a famous couple who died on the Titanic. Just think about that for a second...

predictedYES 1y

@Mirek You can’t make this up.

predictedYES 1y

@NicoDelon I am not, it is true!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65981277 [Missing Titanic submersible: The health risks facing the crew]

predictedNO 1y

@Undox Being dead sure is a pretty severe health risk

1y

betting no in hopes that someone feels incentivized to manipulate this market and find the missing passengers 😉

1y

they have less than 24 hours of air left if they're still down there

1y

I hate asking this... but... do all passengers need to be alive?

predictedNO 1y

@Blomfilter oh nvm it says "or will everyone who was on board be found alive) by the end of the week?"

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