Pedantry and memes aside, it’s clear that there is no reasonable argument against a YES resolution here.

If RFK or his campaign claim that he hasn’t withdrawn or that he hasn’t endorsed Trump, they’re mistaken or lying!

I don’t think he’s dropping out he’s staying on the ballot. I think the news outlets he smears are miss reporting this on purpose to sabotage his campaign

lol, as the #4 NO holder, i’m sure the news outlets who are the ones acting on biases here

It says your a yes holder.

And he is only suspending in the battle ground states to stop the law suits but remains on the poll in many states

so did Marianne when she pulled out of the race, as did Nikki when she pulled out. Both are primaries, but pulling out of a presidential race now is so rare, there really aren’t contemporary analogs.

also, yes, my YES position is puny compared to my account size, though i’m certainly directionally biased to one resolution being correct here.

Will it pay off?

https://manifold.markets/ZaneMiller/if-trump-is-elected-president-will-d82xzhnd4h

I put 1 M on no in case he changes his mind by tonight lol.

@traders

I am of the view that RFK has dropped out of the race (he has suspended his campaign even if he will still appear on the ballot in some states - the market rules were based on whether he would “announce that he is suspending or ending” his campaign) and that he has endorsed Trump (stating that he will “now throw my support to President Trump”).

I know that he appears to be saying that he has not ended his campaign and that his campaign has said that he has not endorsed Trump, but these statements don’t seem to be true.

Unless anyone has a credible challenge to this, I’m going to rewatch his statement to make sure I’m not missing anything and resolve this to YES later on today.

He's still encouraging his supporters to vote for him in the solid red and solid blue ~40 states, so it's not completely unambiguous whether this is really him ending his campaign. But yeah, I'd be inclined to resolve YES.

At least give it until tomorrow, there might be more clarifications either direction that makes resolution less (or more 😅) contentious.

Yes, dropping out of the battleground states is effectively killing the campaign. Staying on the ballot in solid states is just for one last FU to the dems (and maybe the republicans too), as it allows people a zero-cost protest vote.

The news seems to have reached a consensus, which would agree with resolving this YES

“In my heart, I no longer believe that I have a realistic path of electoral victory in the face of this relentless, systematic censorship and media control. So I cannot, in good conscience, ask my staff and volunteers to keep working their long hours, or ask my donors to keep giving when I cannot honestly tell them that I have a real path to the White House,” he said.

Kennedy then said he will now “throw my support to President Trump.”

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/rfk-jr-suspends-campaign/index.html

WSJ reporting it as endorsement.

wtf is happening with this market

Absolutely insane. It's the craziest price swing I've seen in a market since yesterday!

RFK Jr. is not coherent enough to make an unequivocal endorsement of Trump and a good portion of his campaign is resisting doing it for him. The end result is wild swings as people guess how this will be resolved.

I did okay in this market, but I had to get out. He could still show up at this rally today with Trump and explicitly endorse. But it really didn't sound like he was the special guest, for those of us who sat through that dreck. Did it?

The Kennedy family just put out a statement condemning his endorsement of Trump and betrayal of the Democratic party. Also Trump just thanked him for his endorsement.

I couldn't take any more of listening to this creep. But this was not an endorsement of Trump, or encouraging his supporters to vote for Trump.

He specifically said, red state and blue state voters, vote for me.

The reporting is indicating his campaign isn't calling this an endorsement.

Everything RFK touches turns to crap.

Nobody has any clue what RFK is saying.

Impossible to listen to this guy.

I conclude it's irresponsible of both President Biden and President Trump not to wave the magic wand to solve all of this country's problems, health and otherwise.

“Mr. Kennedy has not endorsed president Trump,” RFK campaign spokesperson Stefanie Spear said in a statement to the Washington Post. “The filing was made by an attorney and not reviewed by the campaign. The filing is being updated,” Spear added.

I believe that statement was in regards to the court filing in PA to remove his name off the ballot and before RFK said he was suspending his campaign and encouraged his supporters to vote for Trump.

• Announce that he is suspending or ending his Presidential campaign

I want everyone to know that I am not terminating my campaign. I am simply suspending it and not not ending it.

• Endorsing Donald Trump or urging his supporters to vote for Donald Trump

I [...] now throw my support to president Trump.

I think that satisfies the criteria, so I bet YES here -- but let me know if anyone disagrees.

He is not dropping out. He's staying on the ballot. Suspending his campaign. Has to be NO.

The market, however, states "suspending or ending", so I believe "suspending but not ending" counts.

RFK's mental problems are totally effing up this market!

Yes that is literally what suspending the campaign means. They can always jump back in if the conditions change.

Btw, I didn't hear him say he was endorsing Trump, or encouraging his supporters to vote for Trump. He said his supporters should still vote for him, because he's on the ballot.

Freddy stop grasping at straws 😭

He said he wants people to vote for him. Is that dropping out? It certainly isn't endorsing Trump.

When did he say he was endorsing Trump? What is your timestamp?

Ya in the description it clearly states suspending or ending campaign. The reason politicians always say “suspending” campaign instead of ending is because it has to do with the campaign donations they received. He also encouraged his supporters to vote for Trump which under the creators description counts as an endorsement

Lol agreed

I heard him say, voters in red states or blue states, please vote for me.

He said he wants people to vote for him. Is that dropping out? It certainly isn't endorsing Trump.

That's fair. This also just in from the Guardian:

“Mr. Kennedy has not endorsed president Trump,” RFK campaign spokesperson Stefanie Spear said in a statement to the Washington Post. “The filing was made by an attorney and not reviewed by the campaign. The filing is being updated,” Spear added.