With three months until the first primary votes are cast, there are nine remaining major candidates according to the criterea set out by FiveThirtyEight for inclusion in their poll tracker:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
Francis Suarez and Will Hurd were first out:
/SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-first-major-candida
/SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-next-major-candidat
Who will be next?
Resolution crieterea:
I will resolve this market to the relevant candidate when trustworthy news sources such as the BBC and the Guardian are reporting that a candidate has withdrawn from the primaries and suspended their campaign.
If there is ambiguity as to which of the candidates has withdrawn first (eg. two candidates both say that they are dropping out of the race after the Iowa primaries and the media are not clear on which of them has technically suspended their campaign first), the market will resolve equally to those candidates who are dropping out at the same time
Only candidates listed in this market count, so if someone else rises to the point where they could also be considered major candidate and then drops out they are not included in this market. You are only predicting which of these nine candidates will be the first to drop out.
1,000
3.00I missed out Chris Christie and included Tim Scott twice, so I've recreated this market here with the nine correct options:
@Stralor @PieterVanHertum @RobertoM @justinalvelo @SirCryptomind - apologies for doing it this way but I can't edit options after creating a market and it seemed cleaner to scrub this version of the market rather than trying to tell people that the second Tim Scott was Chris Christie or desperately hoping that neither of them would be next out!
If you can't get the candidates you bet on at the same odds, I'll send you the difference in value as a Managram!
@Radicalia Aargh. And no Chris Christie.
I can't edit options so I think I'll have to recreate this. I'll send a Managram to anyone who can't get their favoured candidates at the same odds as they've already bet!