How high will the UK's CPI inflation figure published on 17th January be?
Mini
33
แน€3.4k
resolved Jan 17
Resolved
YES
3.0% or above
Resolved
YES
3.5% or above
Resolved
YES
4.0% or above

The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest inflation figures at 7:00 UK time on Wednesday 17th January.

This includes the annual CPI number for the past 12 months.

Last year I did these markets as binary YES/NO markets (such as "Will the inflation rate be below 4%") but I'm going to try them out as unlinked multiple choice markets to see if that is more or less popular. If you've got a view on this, please share it in the comments!

Here are the last few readings (based on the month when the figures were released):

January 2023 - 10.5%

February 2023 - 10.1%

March 2023 - 10.4%

April 2023 - 10.1%

May 2023 - 8.7%

June 2023 - 8.7%

July 2023 - 7.9%

August 2023 - 6.8%

September 2023 - 6.7%

October 2023 - 6.7%

November 2023 - 4.6%

December 2023 - 3.9%

Some other UK financial markets:

/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-2e041c940093

/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-change-the

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The BBC News notification on my phone this morning says, "Surprise rise in UK inflation rate to 4%".

It certainly is a surprise - the market had it priced at 8%!

Next month's markets are here: