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80% chance. Follow on from this market Resolves to the earliest date when the price graph of "Yes" shares in https://polymarket.com/event/is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real goes either strictly below 5% for all of Sep Important note: the graph by default displays the price rounded, while this market resolves on the exact price. To show the exact price, click the settings on the polymarket graph (gear icon), and toggle "Decimals" on. When enabled, it shows the exact price (e.g. 5.5%), whereas when disabled it shows the price rounded to the nearest integer (e.g. 6%). This question resolves based on the exact price shown with "Decimals" enabled. (Context: this is the mid price of the order book, i.e. the average of the best bid and ask prices.) This question will use the date in Eastern Time Polymarket displays the price in cents; % and cents mean the same thing here This question resolves based on the price graph of "Yes" only (Context: To the best of my knowledge, if you use the exact decimal price mentioned above, the Yes and No prices always add up to exactly 100%, so this doesn't really matter. But for simplicity, we will still refer only to the Yes price for resolution.) Notes just for context: The Arxiv preprint was published on July 22 and it became well known around July 25 The price being below 5% or above 95% generally implies greater than 95% market confidence because of ROI considerations, since the market doesn't resolve until the end of the year.