
Will the broadly centrist parties still have a majority after the next German Bundestag election?
6
1kṀ2552029
61%
chance
3
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Will resolve after the next German federal election (scheduled for no later than March 2029, unless early elections are called).
Definition of "Broadly Centrist" Parties:
Included as "broadly centrist": CDU/CSU, FDP, SPD, Greens
Not included as "broadly centrist": AfD, BSW, Die Linke (Left Party)
New parties that emerge before the election will be classified based on their policy positions relative to this spectrum
Note: "Broadly centrist" is of course a relative term and depneds on the specific political context and time period. But the classification here generally aligns with how these parties are currently portrayed in mainstream media
"Majority" means collectively holding more than 50% of seats in the Bundestag
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