(When) will Biden drop out of the 2024 presidential race?
Basic
72
18k
Nov 6
0.1%
Before first Dem primary
·
8mo
0.1%
Between first Dem primary and Super Tuesday
·
8mo
27%
Between Super Tuesday and Dem Convention
·
8mo
4%
Between Dem Convention and Election Day
·
8mo
69%
Remains in race through Election Day
·
8mo

Drop out = Officially abandoning his campaign for reelection for any reason.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

If it's during convention, how would this resolve?

@AnonUser Would probably resolve it 50/50

I made a question to separate out that 91% chance a bit further, eg will he make it to inauguration?

/MartinRandall/when-will-biden-drop-out

Does death count as dropping out?

@mariopasquato For this market yes

More related questions