(When) will Biden drop out of the 2024 presidential race?
Plus
79
Ṁ25kresolved Jul 21
1D
1W
1M
ALL
100%98%
Between Super Tuesday and Dem Convention
0.0%
Before first Dem primary
0.1%
Between first Dem primary and Super Tuesday
0.4%
Between Dem Convention and Election Day
1.5%
Remains in race through Election Day
Drop out = Officially abandoning his campaign for reelection for any reason.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@DanielKempner If you think that's particularly likely, it's been consistently at 0-5% here: https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-biden-drop-out?r=TXVnYVNvZmVy
I made a question to separate out that 91% chance a bit further, eg will he make it to inauguration?