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@Simon74fe it’s now Election Day. Resolves YES

If one of the 4 died [/other serious issue] before tomorrow, there wouldn't be time to change the ballots so the ticket on election day would presumably be the same (though pending an update) so it resolves yes. But one has dropped out, for any reason, which presumably includes death, so it also resolves no.

If going by the former, It could probably resolve already, but perhaps the latter is more likely and makes more sense.

Same market here:

Currently, the probability lines up almost exactly with this market (8% vs 9% chance of change).

Vance alone currently trading at 14%: https://manifold.markets/market/will-jd-vance-be-removed-from-the-t

Buying NO at 6% is a steal. So many things that could happen. Just look at some probabilities from this website:
JD Vance replaced: 8%
Tim Walz replaced: 4%

Kamala drop out: 6%
Trump dead by election day: 8%

LOL

6% change that alien biological material will be found on mars in 2024, that might change the state of the race and is pretty uncorrelated to the others, so it all adds up

I don't think 6% is a steal but I'm gonna bet anyway, lol