Same market here:

Currently, the probability lines up almost exactly with this market (8% vs 9% chance of change).

Vance alone currently trading at 14%: https://manifold.markets/market/will-jd-vance-be-removed-from-the-t

Buying NO at 6% is a steal. So many things that could happen. Just look at some probabilities from this website:
JD Vance replaced: 8%
Tim Walz replaced: 4%

Kamala drop out: 6%
Trump dead by election day: 8%

LOL

6% change that alien biological material will be found on mars in 2024, that might change the state of the race and is pretty uncorrelated to the others, so it all adds up

I don't think 6% is a steal but I'm gonna bet anyway, lol