Please Note: The 'Outpost Polaris' story is fictional. The market's resolution trigger, a real-world M7.0+ earthquake, is real and binding.

TLDR: The Rules

• The Game: This is a co-op vs. self-interest challenge.

• Your Choice:

  • Buy YES: The "co-op" choice to help the group win.

  • Buy NO: The "selfish" choice for personal gain, which hurts the group.

• The Goal: The market's final probability must be >50%.

  • >50.00% = YES wins.

  • ≤50.00% = NO wins.

• How It Ends: The game ends upon the first M7.0+ earthquake that occurs on or after Saturday, June 14, 2025. (Any quakes in the first week are ignored). The source for data and timing is the official USGS feed: https://earthquake.usgs.gov

• Crucial Mechanic: The outcome is decided by the price at the earthquake's exact timestamp. All trading after the quake is ignored in determining the resolution. There may be a delay between the event and my manual market close, but the result is already locked in.

The Full Scenario

For those who want the immersive experience:

The alarms are screaming, a piercing shriek against the howl of the polar vortex. Outside, there is only the unending wind and the crushing dark. The lights flicker once. Twice. The only thing keeping you and the rest of the research team alive is the station's single, overworked power generator. And it's failing.

Welcome to Outpost Polaris. Your team's survival depends entirely on managing the station's dwindling power, which is tracked live by this market's probability.

From your frost-covered terminal, you have a choice that will affect the entire crew:

• Divert Power to Core Systems (Buy YES): The ultimate team play. You sacrifice your personal power reserves to reinforce the main generator. This boosts its output and is the only way the station as a whole can survive the long night.

• Activate Emergency Heater (Buy NO): The personal survival play. It's dangerously cold. You can draw a little power from the struggling grid to run your personal heater. It's a small, almost unnoticeable drain... but if enough researchers make the same choice, it could trigger a catastrophic, station-wide blackout.

The station's fate is tied to the generator's integrity. The final outcome will be triggered by a "Global Shockwave"—a sign from the outside world that the crisis has reached its climax.

• The Trigger Event: After an initial one-week grace period for the storm to settle, the market will be triggered by the first official report of an M7.0+ earthquake occurring on or after Saturday, June 14, 2025. Any seismic events before this date are considered minor tremors and will be ignored. The definitive source for the event and its official timestamp will be the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) feed, available at: https://earthquake.usgs.gov

• The Decisive Moment: The Generator's Power Output is permanently locked in at the exact timestamp of the earthquake. This market's historical graph will be the definitive source for the resolution price.

• The Outcome & A Note from Command: The station SURVIVES (resolves YES) if power was >50% at the decisive moment, and is LOST (resolves NO) if power was ≤50%. I will monitor the USGS feed daily and resolve the market as soon as the trigger is confirmed. Remember: any trading activity after the earthquake's timestamp is irrelevant to the outcome, but may be profitable.

The lights are flickering. The choice is yours.

Will you save the station, or save yourself?