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MANIFOLD
Will Austin LessWrong's Petrov Day 2026 be in the top 3 Austin Petrov Day's ever?
10
Ṁ100Ṁ310
resolved Oct 7
Resolved
NO

As determined by post-event survey and group consensus. Austin LW has done a Petrov Day since 2015.

Note: the group's leader will not be present at this one. Update accordingly.

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Poll results: of the 6 attendees that responded, 3 said it probably wasn't in the top 3 Petrov days, 2 said it was, 2 undecided. Median rating of the event was 7/10. Together, that counts as "this was not a top-3 Petrov Day" and the market resolves NO.