Resolution Criteria

The market resolves to whichever Top 10 ATP player exits the Australian Open 2026 first. "Exit" means losing a match and being eliminated from the tournament. The tournament runs from January 18 to February 1, 2026, with first round matches starting on Sunday, January 18. Resolution will be determined by official Australian Open results published on ausopen.com. The player who loses their match earliest in the tournament (first round before second round, second round before third round, etc.) resolves yes. If multiple players from the list lose in the same round, the one eliminated first by match completion time resolves yes.

Background

Jannik Sinner is the defending men's singles champion, and Novak Djokovic is seeking a record-extending 11th Australian Open title. Carlos Alcaraz is the men's top seed. Lorenzo Musetti has surged into the Top 5 for the first time in his career, while Alexander Bublik rose to a career-high No. 10 in the ATP Rankings after winning the title in Hong Kong.