The current situation:

Jannik Sinner is the clear favorite with two consecutive titles in Melbourne (2024-2025) and exceptional form on hard courts. At 23, he is ranked #1 in the world and has been undefeated at the Australian Open for two years. Carlos Alcaraz, 22, with four Grand Slam titles already under his belt, is his main rival - he just needs the Australian Open to complete his collection and has already beaten Sinner in Grand Slam finals. Novak Djokovic, the all-time king of Melbourne with 10 titles, arrives at 38 with uncertain motivation after winning his Olympic gold medal in 2024. Alexander Zverev remains a serious outsider after losing the 2024 final to Sinner he is desperately seeking his first major title.

Key factors:

The fast hard court and extreme heat in Melbourne generally favor youth and power, giving Sinner and Alcaraz an advantage over veteran Djokovic. The draw on January 12 will be crucial if Sinner and Alcaraz fall into the same half of the draw, one will be eliminated before the final. Bookmakers give Sinner about a 45% chance of winning, Alcaraz 28%, and Djokovic 17%.

The consensus:

Experts agree that the final will likely be between Sinner and Alcaraz, with a slight advantage for the defending Italian champion, who plays his best tennis on this surface. Djokovic remains dangerous, but age is starting to take its toll, while Zverev and Medvedev could benefit from an upset if the favorites eliminate each other.