Resolution criteria

The market resolves based on the total points scored by each team across both Conference Championship games on January 25, 2026: the AFC Championship (New England Patriots at Denver Broncos, 3:05 p.m. ET on CBS) and the NFC Championship (Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks, 6:40 p.m. ET on Fox). The team with the highest combined point total across both games wins. Resolution will be determined by official NFL scoring as reported on ESPN, NFL.com, or the official broadcast networks.

Background

The Broncos advanced to the AFC Championship with a 33-30 overtime win over the Bills, but suffered a major loss when starting quarterback Bo Nix broke his ankle. Broncos head coach Sean Payton will turn to backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham for this important game. The Patriots defeated the Houston Texans 28-16 in the divisional round, with quarterback Drake Maye leading the offense. The Seahawks earned their way to the NFC Championship by destroying the 49ers in a 41-6 win. The Rams are now headed to the NFC Championship game for the first time since 2021, a season that ended with them winning the Super Bowl. The Rams will be heading to Seattle to face the Seahawks for the third time this season, with the teams splitting their two regular-season meetings (Rams winning 21-19 in Week 11 and Seahawks winning 38-37 in Week 16).

Considerations

The Broncos are the first team in nine years to be a home underdog in a conference championship game, which reflects the impact of losing their starting quarterback. The Seahawks' dominant defensive performance in the divisional round (41-6 victory) contrasts with the Rams' narrow overtime win, suggesting different offensive capabilities heading into the NFC Championship.