@ShitakiIntaki your random number is: 78

Technical details

Round: 3097453, salt: ztD8xPijzdoAjN18dbGx, retries: 0. To validate, run the following Linux command: echo -n 0f5877bc1ed7765be91303aa6de05bbd7d20195276fd851b2dd303d2bffdbad6-ztD8xPijzdoAjN18dbGx | sha256sum. Take the first sixteen hex digits of the output (0x1ea5e67b6f2b6975 = 2208424610115578229) modulo 31 and add 55. Randomness details:

{"round": 3097453, "randomness": "0f5877bc1ed7765be91303aa6de05bbd7d20195276fd851b2dd303d2bffdbad6", "signature": "b56bd25ac704d44e78ba2dbb1d2aea1dd94fd82c09bd49f3a56c9889e513558365f880eb0a10753585d9b3dd66a9eaf90ad81b9c8d8d6038583082d2b38aaab4059a4f95bb19de1f0ec152dfd39f3f97c2b530034845bf661b2bec9316f81f45", "previous_signature": "a67958e130498004f113b10fdafc288d6d334050d4e98cf38b367d88047b0c6396b0876b5833593c6e172e468a4673a30c30f6b12c7d8c0e9304d98281f7b002f2be1c9e08e0ae695983497b59edfafe38b69f92911e7ced8afc9a35e2dfb232", "timestamp_retrieved": 1688354611, "timestamp_available_estimate": 1688354610}

Market resolution awaiting Fairly Random Roll results.
pre-hash strings posted in the edited market description.

@ShitakiIntaki you asked for a random integer between 55 and 85, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

You can view the open-source implementation and usage instructions for this bot on GitHub.

Technical details

Previous round: 3097380 (latest), offset: 73, selected round: 3097453, salt: ztD8xPijzdoAjN18dbGx. Algorithm:

m = hashlib.sha256()
m.update(randomness['randomness'].encode('ascii'))
m.update('-ztD8xPijzdoAjN18dbGx'.encode('ascii'))
while True:
   m_int = int.from_bytes(m.digest()[:8], byteorder='big')
   if m_int < 18446744073709551600:
       return (m_int % 31) + 55
   m.update("-RETRY")

Randomness details:

{"round": 3097380, "randomness": "754ac08c2660142d196024cb9e59ba52c5600b83294c8cdc29eb75474b8538d0", "signature": "b0fc77f70300f6f0e4574cd506263a2e8ac1778a3110bcd3182d8bce1b4f0588febada12f05716c2fc05b3107a72658700834190c57c61549072ea275eca9b8cc5a247cadf8fcf272ec07bfda5eb0e70b0b4f581120095b5c3978f680a9cf659", "previous_signature": "aea7759a9abbe1eba45d0f5e66f0f552d770cb303c23e7cb02bd6b46e871f90d9d3896a525ae0d092b55ef779ecdab570abb61ef7b1b63ff104a7387f4cf71481df624ffa41bc49196cb9231edc64c1c938ebed8ded2ee3e2252c39315518cf5", "timestamp_retrieved": 1688352439, "timestamp_available_estimate": 1688352420}

@FairlyRandom min=55 max=85 offset=73 verbose=true

I wish there had been greater engagement on this market, but as @AlexbGoode observed, this is an information disparity experiment so the incentive is to not share any information, or to even leak information by trading and then to trade as late as possible upon your credence of whether or not you believe you have the most information.

I will excited if, after the close of all the markets, everyone shares their notes and thoughts.

I have been preparing a post to copy paste to the end of the the description once the market closes and revealing all of the SHA 256 hashed verification strings.

As for trustworthiness criteria for the market for the failsafe: I didn't do a complete evaluation of FairlyRandom, I only skimmed it. It looks like it is impossible to guess beforehand for this market since it uses the comment ID for the salt and this won't be known until the market creator rolls, which will be after the market close (a large enough offset will also solve this problem). So it is unlikely the failsafe will be activated (since it seems trustworthy at face) unless the bot is down or hacked or something.

I haven't deciphered the second cipher so I don't know whether the second cipher will narrow it below or above the new range given by the first. Knowing that the first cipher range includes the descriptive range of 10:90, it seems the best thing to do is NOT bet since I have insufficient information on how the second cipher will modify or whether it will be triggered.

I finally looked at this market today: this description is so long I passed it to GPT and had it summarize it's summary. This market is obfuscation via verbosity.

With the market close, close at hand now we will see if people were playing their cards close to their chest, or have simply forgotten about the market completely.

UPDATE : In light of the absolute crazy stuff that has taken place in WvM and the discussion surrounding whale actions, I have updated the resolution criteria for the market as detailed in edits to the description.

DEPRICATED PREVIOUS RESOLUTION CRITERIA: Resolves YES if the market percentage is less than number rolled, resolves NO if the market percentage is greater than or equal to the number rolled.

Editorial Note: It came to my attention that the Binary YES/NO resolution, although intended to not be profitable to whales, could result in rational traders losing money if, for example, someone came in an irrationally bought NO all the way down to 1% which would guarantee a YES resolution and hose the "whale" but also hose anyone else that had a rational reason to buy NO shares to correct the market percentage. The expected value of rational bets is more or less the same as previous, sans the slight edge NO had in the case of if equal to the roll. If anyone has serious concerns over this update I may resolve NA and recreate the market.

@ShitakiIntaki Secondary Markets

not going to lie... loud sounds scare me

@Harry_ I don't even know how to bet to benfit myself haha

@Harry_ I should have looked at the market earlier so far it is too easy. Edit: I take it back. There are not enough hints for the second cipher.

@Harry_ Give me a hint on how to do the spacings for the second cipher! There are a bunch of 00's in there. Splicing it along them still yields numbers above 52.

@Harry_ Don't know if you've decrypted the second challenge:

https://manifold.markets/ShitakiIntaki/will-someone-be-confirmed-to-have-d-545e387b5c22

Will someone be confirmed to have deciphered Cipher 2 of the Cipher Challenge before close of the challenge?

53% chance. Resolves YES if someone demonstrates that Cipher 2 in the Cipher Challenge was solved before the close of the market. Verification will be established after close of the market using SHA-256 hash included in the Cipher Challenge description. Resolves NO otherwise. Note this market clo…

Why did you not bet on the related market? You definitely had 'insider' knowledge. 😂

@parhizj I had loads of uni exams so I kinda stopped going on manifold for a bit haha

The stream ciphers used are not keyed.

how can you have a stream cipher with no keys? unless I'm miss understanding what not keyed means. Even a ROT-13 has a key (13)

@Harry_ even a solitaire cipher uses keys

Sounds like my use of language was ambiguous, i have updated the description.

I am a little confused by the 3rd hint and "the Cipher 2 constraint is a subset of the Cipher 1 constraint.": Which cipher is supposed to be easier to crack? Cipher 1 or cipher 2?

@AlexbGoode the range of the random number is 10 to 90 inclusive. Subset is meant to convey that the constraints are completely contained with in the known constraints, i.e. Cipher 1 won't suddenly make a roll outside of the 10 to 90 range possible, Cipher 2 won't include any possibilities that were not possible under Cipher 1.

The intent is that Cipher 2 is more effort than Cipher 1, how much more effort depends upon how you come to decipher Cipher 1.

These markets provide an incentive to not discuss and bet late. If I would have the solution to the cipher I would not discuss it and would delay betting in order not to give away my intel.

Just, FYI I have learned a bit about different ciphers from this market. So thanks for creating it :)

@AlexbGoode I am happy if you learned something new in your research. My goal is to share my hobbyist interests and to provide an incentive to learning.

The incentive to bet late runs counter to the goal of a high volume market with a lot of noise as an incentive to enter the market 😭

Do you expect people to try to solve the cipher? You haven't provided much of an incentive.

@IsaacKing I don't have much within my power ro offer as an incentive beside subsidies. If I could offer a bounty it would be a better individual incentive, but my hope was if the market became high enough volume then the margins would be come an incentive. Problem really seems to be how to kick it off.

@IsaacKing I am all ears if you have a suggestion, I would love to see more engagement on the market and provide an incentive for others to learn about a new topic.

@ShitakiIntaki If I wanted to win this market, I would just bet it up to 90% or down to 10% at the last minute. Solving the cipher would only give me the additional benefit of being able to narrow that range slightly, but that's not helpful as long as I have enough mana to push it all the way to 90/10.

If you want to incentivize people to solve it, you should just offer a bounty for the solution (if you want people to work on it individually) or make a market on whether they solve it (if you want people to work on it collaboratively.)

I just made one with a different (probably much simpler) cipher to see how it goes.

@IsaacKing the resolution criteria actually would make such a maneuver a losing one. If you bet it down below 10%, it is guaranteed to resolve YES, so whomever bought NO would be doing so at a loss. Conversely if you bet up beyond 90% just before close then it is guaranteed to resolve NO.

@ShitakiIntaki I suppose someone with a large interest in one resolution or another could use an alt or proxy to take an individual loss for the benefit of others. I only safeguarded against a lone share holder manipulating the market for personal gain, not against coordinated manipulation for an aggregated gain, however my understanding is that such a manipulation flirts with violation of the community standards.

@ShitakiIntaki Oh, whoops. I read the description incorrectly, thought it resolved in the direction of the probability.

@IsaacKing I did want to make the cipher relevant, but I do feel like the consequence is that now the market should trend towards 50% so it could dampen trade volume. That is unless people play mind games, placing bets to mislead others into believing the market should be elsewhere, to misrepresent that they deciphered some or all of the ciphers or to obfuscate that they have in fact done so.

@ShitakiIntaki I should have never discouraged Issac from participating however Issac wanted to. Some high profile participants might have generated more interest.