Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if any Senate-confirmed member of the US Cabinet (Vice President, and the heads of the 15-at-the-time-of-writing executive departments; but anyone serving as Acting Secretary without being confirmed to the position doesn't count) is impeached by the House of Representatives during Trump's 2025-2029 presidential term (January 20, 2025 – January 20, 2029). Impeachment requires a simple majority vote in the House. The market resolves NO if no Cabinet member is impeached by the end of the presidential term.

Background

Cabinet secretary impeachment is rare, with only two secretaries having ever been impeached by the House—both were acquitted by the Senate and neither lost their positions. The two impeached cabinet secretaries were former War Secretary William Belknap in 1876 and Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas in 2024.