Spot price is currently at high premium, I'd venture a good amount of Volatility this week! Lets test again in the market!
This market resolves to the official WTI Crude Oil Spot Price (Cushing, Oklahoma) for the date of October 8 , 2026,(EDIT) as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Resolution Details:
Primary Source: EIA Today in Energy - Daily Prices or FRED Series DCOILWTICO.
Secondary Reference: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/cl.1 (shared for directional reference, this market does not resolve to this price)
Data Point: The "Daily" value listed for October 8
Timing: Betting will close at 11:59 PM ET on October 8 but resolution will occur once the EIA publishes the data (typically the following morning).
Note: This is the Spot Price, not the NYMEX Futures price. If the EIA does not report a price for this specific date (e.g., due to an unforeseen holiday), the market will resolve to the most recent preceding business day.
Strictly more than not equal to
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The EIA daily-price page now shows the October 8 close: WTI spot $98.26/barrel, below the $99.50 threshold. The page is dated October 9 and the wholesale table is explicitly labeled 10/08/26 Close. This supports NO under the listed source criteria. Please review for resolution.
Note to traders: Not to say a YES resolution is anything close to certain, but the current–5% odds are ignoring the massive gap between the EIA Spot Price and NYMEX Futures.
Yesterday (Oct 7), NYMEX Futures were around $88.00 at the 2:30 PM ET settlement mark, while the official EIA Spot Price printed at ~$95.0.2 meaning physical spot oil is trading at roughly a +$7.00 premium over futures due to the tanker attack and immediate supply news.
Today, futures are up about $4.00 (around $92.00). Even if yesterday's $7.00 spot premium shrinks a bit, the most likely EIA spot print for today is right in the $98.00–$99.00 range. That puts us within $0.50–$1.50 of the $99.50 threshold. While NO is still quite favored, this looks much closer to a 20%– chance to clear $99.50 than a 5% shot where it's been trading today, considering other supply constraint news today(hurricane in gulf, etc) the premium could also rise(deserves weight in your bets). EV of a 100 Mana Bet(1182 on yes) is positive if you think this at 10% and I'd say it's higher than 10
Remember: the physical spot price locks at the 2:30 PM ET close today (and officially resolves when the EIA publishes the data tomorrow morning), so the market remains open for anyone who wants to bet on the underpriced tail risk! Caution to anyone I sway in this, this would be an EV bet and this still has a very likely outcome of NO
For transparency, I will bet on this tail risk for the upside, but promise to not sell any of it.