Resolution Criteria: Based on the 3-Day Domestic Opening Weekend figure (Friday–Sunday) reported by Box Office Mojo. Resolution Link: Box Office Mojo - 2026 Domestic Opening Weekends

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 44% chance (2 traders, as of Apr 8, 2026).

Will The Mandalorian and Grogu (May 22) beat The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $130.9M opening weekend?

Will The Mandalorian and Grogu (May 22) beat The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $130.9M opening weekend?

Ṁ250Ṁ79

May 25

44%

chance

ALL

Resolution Criteria: Based on the 3-Day Domestic Opening Weekend figure (Friday–Sunday) reported by Box Office Mojo.
Resolution Link: Box Office Mojo - 2026 Domestic Opening Weekends

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