MANIFOLD
Will the February 2026 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) exceed 130,000?
2
Ṁ350Ṁ230
Mar 6
15%
chance
  • This market resolves to YES if the "Employment Situation" report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday, March 6, 2026, shows a change in total non-farm payroll employment of 131,000 or more.

  • It resolves to NO if the number is 130,000 or fewer.

  • Context: This is the first major labor report following the end of the 43-day shutdown. Estimates are currently split between a "catch-up" surge and a "recessionary" slump.

Market context
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