If Iran attacks Israel, will it be a multi day attack?
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แน€19k
resolved Oct 4
Resolved
YES
Attack happens, all missiles land within a 24 hour window
Resolved
NO
Yes, multi day attack
Resolved
NO
No attack happens by market close

This asks whether the next Iranian direct attack on Israel (that happens before market close) will be a multi day attack.

"Multi day" will mean that missiles land outside of a 24 hour window but within a 72 hour window (longer than that would count as separate attacks).

Note that while it has to include a direct Iranian attack to count, other attacks within the window by proxies (such as Hezbollah or Yemen) would still count as extending the window if they're sufficiently intense ("normal" status quo attacks, like Hezbollah launching 40 rockets a day at Israeli villages, would not).

Spiritual sequel to https://manifold.markets/ShakedKoplewitz/if-iranhezbollah-attacks-israel-wil?r=U2hha2VkS29wbGV3aXR6

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We're on the clock people! Any major attack between tomorrow night and Friday settles as yes, otherwise no

Will only 1 of these answers Resolve YES, or can multiple (which is how the market is set up)?

Should be only one (I forgot to hit the link answers button when setting it up, sorry)