Who will the Russian authorities officially blame for the terror attack on Moscow?
340
3.6K
6.4K
Apr 22
89%
Ukraine
6%
CIA (or the US generally)
4%
ISIS

If multiple groups, will resolve to a split of what Russia places emphasis on

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Thanks for all the comments, guys. Here are my thoughts on the current state of the information.

I have seen things rapidly change in the Russian information space before, as the government gets a new line. It still seems like they're trying to figure out what exactly to say and I'm not in a rush to immediately resolve this.

I do note that "the specific group known as the Islamic State" is not the same as "radical islamists" as Putin said. It seems like he was sort of vaguely suggesting it was ISIS while not actually saying that out loud, and saying it was really Ukraine's fault. Patrushev was asked "ISIS or Ukraine", and said "Of course, Ukraine."

https://twitter.com/Belsat_Eng/status/1772594201517039873

If I absolutely had to resolve this right now, it'd probably be something like 85/13/2 Ukraine/ISIS/CIA, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if the official emerging line by the government in a few days/weeks is "okay fine, it was ISIS but Ukraine helped them" which would make it 50/50. It would surprise me a lot if they completely backed off Ukraine being involved, given what they've said so far.

https://ukrainetoday.org/russia-accuses-ukrainian-oil-and-gas-company-where-bidens-son-used-to-work-of-funding-terrorist-attacks/

Russia accuses Ukrainian oil and gas company where Biden's son used to work of funding terrorist attacks

The Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation has accused Burisma Holdings, a Ukrainian oil and gas company where Hunter Biden worked, of financing terrorist attacks in Russia.

Source: RIA Novosti, a Kremlin-aligned Russian news outlet

Details: "Funds received through the oil and gas company Burisma Holdings, which operates in Ukraine, were used for terrorist attacks in Russia," they said.

Particular attention was paid to the fact that Hunter Biden, the son of US President Joe Biden, worked for this company.

Background:

  • On 28 March, the Russian Investigative Committee announced that it had received "evidence" that the attackers at the Crocus City Hall concert hall were linked to "Ukrainian nationalists".

  • On 26 March, after Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin accused "those who are fighting with Russia with the hands of the Kyiv regime" of committing the shooting at Crocus City Hall, Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Russian Security Council, said that Ukraine, not ISIS, was behind the 22 March attack.

  • Ukraine’s intelligence said that Russia knew in advance about the preparation of a terrorist operation in Moscow Oblast, but allowed it to happen either because of the dispute between the so-called "towers of influence" or the inestimable scale of what could happen.

  • Self-proclaimed Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko said that the attackers on the Russian Crocus City Hall intended to get to Belarus, but due to security measures, they "turned away" and went to the Ukrainian-Russian border.  

  • As of Friday, 5 April, the Russian Emergencies Ministry published a list of the dead, which included 143 names.

  • Russia's Investigative Committee said that photos of people in camouflage uniforms with the flag of Ukraine on them were found in the phones of the attackers of the Crocus City Hall concert hall.   

"The Kremlin is cranking up its efforts to shift responsibility for the Crocus City Hall terror attack to Ukraine, while using the incident to boost recruitment for its armed forces."

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-ups-efforts-to-shift-blame-for-crocus-terror-attack-to-ukraine-brags-its-boosting-recruitment-for-front/

Is the resolution waiting on the Duma to pass a law or something explicitly blaming one of these parties? Most news articles on the topic that go into official Russian attribution are about Russia blaming Ukraine.

@Finn they've blamed Ukraine multiple times now

bought Ṁ20 CIA (or the US gener... YES

Russia is claiming the found "Ukrainian flags" on the 4 people's phone they tortured. Continually saying it was done with support from the west (US) as US provided advanced warning.

When we gonna close this? They blaming Ukraine and US and claiming that ISIS is a false flag by "Foreign Agents"

@redacted my guess is that we are awaiting the close date of the 21st. Had it been my market, I would have resolved Ukraine solo much sooner. Now that we have waited, US has earned some generalized blame, but it is still rather distant to the layers of specificity thrown at Ukraine. Isis has been actively avoided, so I would be floored with any split for isis.

I'm also not sure how a resolution split works relative to the calibration of the market.

@alieninmybeverage Yeah, starting to regret participating a bit in this as the "blame" period is well over and now its just left to a subjective split among blame targets.

I genuinely don't know how I'd be resolving this one. The longer it goes on, the more the US will likely be blamed as "The Narrative" is that Ukraine is a puppet of the west, so its such an obvious target. Dragging Biden is just bonus points for them.

@redacted yeah I made a few detailed posts here about how the market resolution is at least as arbitrary as the "process" being used to itself gain "resolution." What was not arbitrary in the creation of the market was the equivalent "is Russia daft enough to blame Ukraine?" and THAT is the implicit market bet on from the start. Once that was answered (YUP), resolving it as Ukraine with whatever mix seems the only nonarbitrary management of the market. Not because it is unreasonable to want further clarification or an official narrative, but solely for the reason that Russia had made their nonarbitrary deliberations (blame Ukraine, avoid blaming isis [presumably to reduce the barrier to blaming Ukraine]). Russia's "investigation" at that point is almost certainly itself arbitrary given how contrived the narrative was immediately relative to the information available at the time (US warning, ISIS credit taking with video evidence). The NEW implicit market is essentially "Who will speak up as a detractor to this narrative, and how detrimental would this be to the 'UKRAINE DID IT' pseudonarrative?" Because PREDICTABLY, Russia will apportion blame accordingly, which makes the odds and risks being traded on now arbitrary relative to the odds and risks of the original market.

bought Ṁ10 ISIS NO

Are we going to get a resolution on this?

bought Ṁ3 CIA (or the US gener... YES

A report on Russian state TV tonight shows how determined the Russian authorities are to convince the public that Ukraine & the West were behind the Crocus City concert hall massacre. In Russia-1’s flagship news show ‘News of the Week’ a report showed interrogation videos of the suspected attackers, in which they say their plan was to “head to Kyiv”. The reporter claims: “Following the terrorist attack Western sources and many Russian foreign agents began to shift the focus from the Ukrainian link to, exclusively, Islamic State.” But in the report, there is no mention of Islamic State’s claim of responsibility, or of last month’s ISIS plot to target a Moscow synagogue. Or that the US and Iran had warned Russia of an imminent attack. The reporter makes the extraordinary claim that Western media paid more attention to the appearance of the suspects (ie signs of torture) and “had more sympathy for those who carried out the terrorist attack that killed more than 140 defenceless people, than for the victims...” A clear attempt to further demonise the West in the eyes of Russian viewers.

https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1776995685508010193

called it. """"confessions"""" extracted under extreme torture

https://www.interfax.ru/russia/954057

Putin: Russia cannot be an aim of attack of islamic fundamentalists.

Looks like they will blame everyone EXCEPT ISIS. They already blamed Ukraine, USA, UK, France.

More interesting question is who is really behind the attacks: FSB, ISIS, GRU, CIA, X?

@HenriLaupmaa not really, pretty clear cut that it's IS. If you want to buy into any conspiracies, the most likely of those is that it was Russia's own security services tho.

bought Ṁ440 CIA (or the US gener... YES

I have legit no idea how you are going to resolve this, but the USA is definitely on the list

(as of 3 hours ago)

@redacted For the direct quote from Patrushev (Security Council Head)

It is not directly related to the market, but it is interesting what the Russians think

Many Russians surveyed after the attack gave credence to the Ukraine theory. More than 50 per cent blamed the Ukrainian leadership and only about 27 per cent pointed to Isis, according to polling data by OpenMinds, an Anglo-Ukrainian online pollster that shared its results with the FT. Another 6 per cent blamed the “collective west”, namely the US, UK and Nato.

Bar chart of Q: 'Who is responsible for the attack on the Crocus City Hall?' (% of respondents) showing Many Russians believe Ukraine was to blame for the Crocus City Hall attack

More than 75 per cent of respondents considered Putin to be the most reliable or a completely reliable source of information about the attack, OpenMinds data shows.


https://archive.is/xpls4

@Emanuele98 their propaganda machine is weirdly effective for how hamfisted it is

russia has tortured someone to death so I guess they'll come out with some new lies based on his "confession"

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/04/02/chechen-man-dies-in-police-custody-after-crocus-attack-reports-a84712

@Lorelai called it. "confessions" extracted under extreme torture

I have a question. Let politics be a side.

@CreativeCulture in a country where authorities lie, everyone plagiarizes their dissertation, and nobody can check the efficacy of any vaccine, I'm guessing the chance of there actually being a cancer vaccine is about 0.00000000001%

https://twitter.com/ilya_shepelin/status/1774014008229531997

"On air on Channel One, Gen. Ovchinsky said that the perpetrators of the terrorist attack were probably implanted with chips in order to carry out the attack at Crocus. The use of this technology, he said, proves that the West was behind the terrorist attack

"These bastards have had their minds turned off. Most likely, psychotropic substances, neuropsychological this very thing... Programming! And, perhaps, the expertise will show it: chips were inserted!

Nowadays neurobiology allows to control a human being. Here is the experiment of Ilon Musk, when he makes people out of pigs.

It's clear that this is no longer some pseudo-ISIS group! This is a well-organized terrorist attack. Organized at the level of Western intelligence services! Only they have such means of influencing people!""

@Emanuele98 In Russia, every day is April Fools Day.

Russian MFA made an official statement blaming Ukraine (and nobody else)

https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1941886/

@Kostya and on the anniversary of Bucha's liberation too, pretty gross

https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1774373697219866893

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