What will be the gap between the popular vote and the tipping point state in 2024?
25
1kṀ3988resolved Jan 16
100%97%
Between D+0 and D+2
0.1%
D+6 or higher
0.2%
Between D+4 or D+6
2%
Between D+2 and D+4
0.2%
Between R+0 and R+2
0.1%
Between R+2 and R+4
0.0%
Between R+4 and R+6
0.0%
R+6 or higher
All calculations will exclude faithless electors. 269-269 electoral college scenarios will count for Republicans.
In 2016, this was D+2.8: Clinton won the pop vote by 2.1% and lost the tipping point state of Wisconsin by 0.7%.
In 2020, this was D+ 3.9%: Biden won the popular vote by 4.5% and won the tipping point state of Wisconsin by 0.6%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ515 | |
| 2 | Ṁ164 | |
| 3 | Ṁ49 | |
| 4 | Ṁ44 | |
| 5 | Ṁ40 |
Sort by:
@SemioticRivalry I think this can resolve now.
National margin: 77,303,573-75,019,257= 2,284,316
2,284,316/155,289,257= R+1.471%
PA margin: 3,543,308-3,423,042= 120,266
120,266/7,034,206= R+1.710%
A difference of about D+0.239 resolves to Between D+0 and D+2.
@NeilG If you uniformly shift the popular vote across every state, which state decided the election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping-point_state