What will be the gap between the popular vote and the tipping point state in 2024?
20
102
Ṁ664Ṁ720
2025
1D
1W
1M
ALL
1.2%
D+6 or higher
9%
Between D+4 or D+6
53%
Between D+2 and D+4
26%
Between D+0 and D+2
9%
Between R+0 and R+2
1.3%
Between R+2 and R+4
0.6%
Between R+4 and R+6
0.6%
R+6 or higher
All calculations will exclude faithless electors. 269-269 electoral college scenarios will count for Republicans.
In 2016, this was D+2.8: Clinton won the pop vote by 2.1% and lost the tipping point state of Wisconsin by 0.7%.
In 2020, this was D+ 3.9%: Biden won the popular vote by 4.5% and won the tipping point state of Wisconsin by 0.6%.
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@NeilG If you uniformly shift the popular vote across every state, which state decided the election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping-point_state
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